dajo9 said:

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movielover said:

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Muslims in the UK and France average 2.9 children double the 1.4 rate for non-Muslim Germans.

Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 at the urging of Arab states and the UN.

Instead of building a beautiful city, the people of Gaza voted for Hamas to be their government.

The place became home to terror - not hotels and beautiful beaches.

Hamas leaders became billionaires…

— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) October 30, 2023

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Can a country be a country without control of its borders?

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The question Conservatives here have been asking for years. The Buden Administration has let in 8 Million illegal immigrants in 3 years; VDH says our State has 10 Million illegal residents.

This morning I was briefly chatting with a 'retired' African American man who says his girlfriend lives in the 'TL' (Tenderloin). He claims American drug dealers are arrested - black or white - but the police leave the illegal immigrant dealers alone bc they don't know how to handle them / or it's useless.

Can a country be a country without control of its borders?

In theory, yes, but in practice, it depends on whether it needs to keep people out.

In Gaza, are illegal border crossers bringing drugs, crime, human trafficking, and draining public resources? Seems like Gazans need protection from their own leadership more than anything else.

movielover said:

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The KKK was a wing of the Democrat Party, including virtually all of the prominent leaders of slavery and Jim Crow. Just like BLM and Antifa, though some are Anarchists and Communists.

Thankfully the KKK is largely extinct, with some disgruntled uneducated souls trying to foment hate from granny's basement.

Nazis are apparently active in Ukraine, with reportedly 22 active groups today.

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All the lies and you know

Zippergate said:

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In Gaza, are illegal border crossers bringing drugs, crime, human trafficking, and draining public resources? Seems like Gazans need protection from their own leadership more than anything else.

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https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/117254/replies/2251735

Cal88 said:

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movielover said:

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Twenty two chaotic Arab countries exist, with one Jewish state, and many of these countries want the destruction of Israel, a democracy and friend of the USA.

It seems like the Palestinians are a group no one wants, but use as a proxy to attack Israel. I mentioned earlier - why not settle them in the Sinai, and give Israel more security? But apparently the Palestinians have caused havoc for several countries.

A friend claims the high Muslim birth rate and men having multiple wives will eventually make all this moot.

Then we have the bright Iranian people being led by the religious zealot Mullahs. I wonder if we've given Israel any bunker buster bombs to take out the German designed, deep underground bunkers?

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Israel wants to precipitate a war with Iran, done mostly with American blood and treasure, sooner rather than later because they are getting S-400s and 64 Su-35 jets from Russia next year.

Polygamy in the Muslim world is a marginal phenomenon, and the demographic growth rate in most Muslim countries has levelled off, due to their population becoming urbanized. The remianing countries that have bucked the trend are in sub-Saharan Africa. In Saudi and Egypt, the fertility rate has dropped from 6-7 children to nelow 3 today, near replacement rates. The decline is even sharper in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia etc with current fertility rates at or below replacement.

Arab countries like Iraq, Libya and Syria were stable and relatively affluent before they got invaded or torn up by jihadis funded and armed by NATO and Gulf proxies. Libya had the highest standard of living in Africa by far, Iraq had the best infrastructure in the developing world.

Egypt and Jordan pitching in some territory for a 2-state solution would be very helpful, though the current Israeli administration and even Barak's Labor Party were opposed to a 2-state settlement. Rabin was the last proponent of this solution in Israel, and ended up paying the ultimate price for that, RIP.

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Doesn't Russia needs those missiles and jets in Ukraine?

MinotStateBeav said:

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Hrmm...only if you're neglecting that bilateral agreements exist.

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I'm sure none of those countries will have a problem with us pulling out of NATO and the UN.

From 2000 to 2021, about 108 kids were killed in school shootings in the United States. Israel has killed more children than that every single day since 10/7 pic.twitter.com/D8aq5c6hZ2

— 12 Ball (@BoltzmannBooty) October 30, 2023

Biden voters only care about children killed on U.S. soil though. Killing Palestinian children is okay cause Biden supports it.

10% For The Big Guy said:

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From 2000 to 2021, about 108 kids were killed in school shootings in the United States. Israel has killed more children than that every single day since 10/7 pic.twitter.com/D8aq5c6hZ2

— 12 Ball (@BoltzmannBooty) October 30, 2023

Biden voters only care about children killed on U.S. soil though. Killing Palestinian children is okay cause Biden supports it.

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Not to mention children killed on Ukraine soil? Not hearing much about them.

wifeisafurd said:

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10% For The Big Guy said:

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From 2000 to 2021, about 108 kids were killed in school shootings in the United States. Israel has killed more children than that every single day since 10/7 pic.twitter.com/D8aq5c6hZ2

— 12 Ball (@BoltzmannBooty) October 30, 2023

Biden voters only care about children killed on U.S. soil though. Killing Palestinian children is okay cause Biden supports it.

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Not to mention children killed on Ukraine soil? Not hearing much about them.

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Apparently they're all Nazis, so they don't count.

BearGoggles said:

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Slava Palestini said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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Biden's Zionist handlers would never allow him to show any compassion for Palestinians.

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Someone posts "Biden's Zionist handlers" on this board - a clear antisemitic trope - and it gets 3 likes on this board?

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Pretty wild thing for a foreign government to say out loud pic.twitter.com/a2hbx2YhgT

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 31, 2023

What are the electoral ramifications of this conflict if we voted today, assumed all other issues equal, and assumed an 11% increase in Jewish support for Democrats (from 69% to 80% and a 42% decrease in Democratic support, per the latest Arab American Institute Poll? (and assumed proportional distribution of voting participation and voting age and proportional distribution of +11% and -42% in each state's population?

TL;DR Summary: Republicans would flip Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin and win the presidency with 269 electoral votes, and the tie going to the House, where Republicans currently have a majority House delegation in 27 states.

Details:

Last polled in 2020, Arab American support was 59% for President Biden. It now stands at 17%. Support for Trump increased from 35% to 40%, while Not Sure increased from 4% to 25%, and 3rd Party increased from 3% to 18%

The poll, released Tuesday, marks the first time since its inception in 1997 that a majority of Arab Americans did not identify as Democrats - 32% now identify as Republicans and 31% as independents.

The 2010 Census counted 1.6M Arab Americans. The 2020 Census counted 3.5 million Middle Eastern and North African (MENA), a category that had not been previously counted prior to 2020, while the Arab American Institute estimates 3.7 million for 2023.

• Arizona is estimated to have 95,000 Arab Americans. Biden won Arizona by ~11,000 votes. 11 electoral votes.
• Georgia is estimated to have 81,000 Arab Americans. Biden won Georgia by ~13,000 votes. 16 electoral votes.
• Michigan is estimated to have 500,000 Arab Americans. Biden won Michigan by ~15,500 votes. 16 electoral votes.
• Wisconsin is estimated to have 60,000 Arab Americans. Biden won Wisconsin by ~10,000 votes. 10 electoral votes.

Biden won by 306 electoral votes - 36 more than 270 necessary to win. Lose any three of those four states and the Biden path to victory depends on flipping North Carolina, a state with an estimated Arab American population of 91,000 that Biden lost by 74,000. The next best shot is Florida, a state Biden lost by 371,0000 with an Arab American population of 301,000.

The Jewish American population is estimated at 7.6 million, as a bloc they supported Biden over Trump 69% to 30%. The highest support as a bloc Jewish Americans gave to a Democratic president was Bill Clinton, at 80% in 1992 - so likely an 11% ceiling in increased support.

So let's say we had an election today, all else is equal (obviously it would not be), and that state populations of Arab Americans and Jewish Americans vote in accordance with national trends (another broad un-true assumption but the best data I have). Let's assume Biden enjoys an 11% increase in support in every state of Jewish-American voters, and a 42% decrease in Arab American support. We will assume uniform distribution of voting / non-voting aged population - 77.5% voting age, and then uniform turnout of 66% of that 77.5%

Arizona:

• A Jewish-American population of 124,000. 63,000 estimated turned out voters. Net gain of 7,000 voters assuming 11% increase from 69% support for Biden in 2020.
• Arab-American population of 95,000, 48,000 estimated voters who will turn out. Net loss of 20,160 voters assuming 42% decreased support.

Net result of 13,160 less votes for Biden in a state he won by 11,000 votes. Arizona's 11 electoral votes go to Republican candidate.

Georgia:

• A Jewish-American population of 141,000. 72,000 estimated turned out voters. Net gain of 8,000 voters assuming 11% increase from 69% support for Biden in 2020.
• Arab-American population of 81,000, 41,400 estimated voters who will turn out. Net loss of 17,400 voters assuming 42% decreased support.

Net result of 9,400 less votes for Biden in a state he won by 13,000. Georgia margin of victory shrinks to 3,600.

Michigan:

• A Jewish-American population of 88,000. 45,000 estimated turned out voters. Net gain of 5,000 voters assuming 11% increase from 69% support for Biden in 2020.
• Arab-American population of 500,000, 255,000 estimated voters who will turn out. Net loss of 107,400 voters assuming 42% decreased support.

Net result of 102,400 less votes for Biden in a state he won by 15,500. Michigan's 16 electoral votes go to the Republican candidate.

Wisconsin:

• A Jewish-American population of 33,500. 17,000 estimated turned out voters. Net gain of 2,000 voters assuming 11% increase from 69% support for Biden in 2020.
• Arab-American population of 60,000, 30,700 estimated voters who will turn out. Net loss of 12,900 voters assuming 42% decreased support.

Net result of 11,000 less votes for Biden in a state he won by 10,000. Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes go to the Republican candidate.

11 Arizona + 16 Michigan + 10 Wisconsin = 37 electoral votes.

306 (Biden's electoral votes) - 37 = 269
232 (Trump's electoral votes) + 37 = 269

Tie goes to the House, where each state gets one vote according to who has the majority of the House of Representatives by party for each state - Republicans currently have a majority of House seats in 27 states, so there you have it, Republican president.

wifeisafurd said:

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10% For The Big Guy said:

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From 2000 to 2021, about 108 kids were killed in school shootings in the United States. Israel has killed more children than that every single day since 10/7 pic.twitter.com/D8aq5c6hZ2

— 12 Ball (@BoltzmannBooty) October 30, 2023

Biden voters only care about children killed on U.S. soil though. Killing Palestinian children is okay cause Biden supports it.

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Not to mention children killed on Ukraine soil? Not hearing much about them.

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Maybe the United States should be working harder to promote peace in that area then instead of continue to feed a losing cause.

10% For The Big Guy said:

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BearGoggles said:

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Slava Palestini said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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Biden's Zionist handlers would never allow him to show any compassion for Palestinians.

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Someone posts "Biden's Zionist handlers" on this board - a clear antisemitic trope - and it gets 3 likes on this board?

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Pretty wild thing for a foreign government to say out loud pic.twitter.com/a2hbx2YhgT

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 31, 2023

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That IS wild. I would fire anybody in my administration that said "not for nothing".

Even CNN war enthusiast and former AIPAC newsletter editor Wolf Blitzer is taken aback by Israel's disregard of the sixth commandment.

CNN's Wolf Blitzer: You knew that there were innocent civilians in that refugee camp, right?

IDF spox: This is the tragedy of war. We told them to move south.

Blitzer: So you decided to drop the bomb anyway.

IDF spox: We’re doing everything we can to minimize civilian deaths. pic.twitter.com/oAtW7jV0pc

— Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona) October 31, 2023

🚨 Israel just massacred yet another “large number” of civilians by bombing a crowded refugee camp.@CNN opens their story by saying Israel was “targeting a Hamas commander,” as if it's a statement of fact.

They offer no proof of this & seem to be simply parroting the IDF: pic.twitter.com/PbKysAVQ4X

— Decensored News (@decensorednews) October 31, 2023

🤡 pic.twitter.com/n0k3kcMxuL

— Paweł Wargan (@pawelwargan) October 31, 2023

10% For The Big Guy said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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10% For The Big Guy said:

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From 2000 to 2021, about 108 kids were killed in school shootings in the United States. Israel has killed more children than that every single day since 10/7 pic.twitter.com/D8aq5c6hZ2

— 12 Ball (@BoltzmannBooty) October 30, 2023

Biden voters only care about children killed on U.S. soil though. Killing Palestinian children is okay cause Biden supports it.

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Not to mention children killed on Ukraine soil? Not hearing much about them.

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Maybe the United States should be working harder to promote peace in that area then instead of continue to feed a losing cause.

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So the idea is banking a winning cause. Got it - must be why Biden pivoted to Israel. They have a one-sided advantage militarily.

Just to make the domestic side of all this more murky:

House Republicans rolled out the 13-page bill on Monday, which would completely offer this aide to Israel by rescinding the $14.3 billion in Adie to Israel from the Inflation Reduction Act passed last year. Specifically, the bill targets some of the $80 billion the package allocated toward the Internal Revenue Service for audits on wealthy individuals. It also doesn't address any aide to Gaza post-whatever Israel is doing.

sycasey said:

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KPG said:

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What are the electoral ramifications of this conflict if we voted today, assumed all other issues equal, and assumed an 11% increase in Jewish support for Democrats (from 69% to 80% and a 42% decrease in Democratic support, per the latest Arab American Institute Poll? (and assumed proportional distribution of voting participation and voting age and proportional distribution of +11% and -42% in each state's population?

TL;DR Summary: Republicans would flip Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin and win the presidency with 269 electoral votes, and the tie going to the House, where Republicans currently have a majority House delegation in 27 states.

Details:

Last polled in 2020, Arab American support was 59% for President Biden. It now stands at 17%. Support for Trump increased from 35% to 40%, while Not Sure increased from 4% to 25%, and 3rd Party increased from 3% to 18%

The poll, released Tuesday, marks the first time since its inception in 1997 that a majority of Arab Americans did not identify as Democrats - 32% now identify as Republicans and 31% as independents.

The 2010 Census counted 1.6M Arab Americans. The 2020 Census counted 3.5 million Middle Eastern and North African (MENA), a category that had not been previously counted prior to 2020, while the Arab American Institute estimates 3.7 million for 2023.

• Arizona is estimated to have 95,000 Arab Americans. Biden won Arizona by ~11,000 votes. 11 electoral votes.
• Georgia is estimated to have 81,000 Arab Americans. Biden won Georgia by ~13,000 votes. 16 electoral votes.
• Michigan is estimated to have 500,000 Arab Americans. Biden won Michigan by ~15,500 votes. 16 electoral votes.
• Wisconsin is estimated to have 60,000 Arab Americans. Biden won Wisconsin by ~10,000 votes. 10 electoral votes.

Biden won by 306 electoral votes - 36 more than 270 necessary to win. Lose any three of those four states and the Biden path to victory depends on flipping North Carolina, a state with an estimated Arab American population of 91,000 that Biden lost by 74,000. The next best shot is Florida, a state Biden lost by 371,0000 with an Arab American population of 301,000.

The Jewish American population is estimated at 7.6 million, as a bloc they supported Biden over Trump 69% to 30%. The highest support as a bloc Jewish Americans gave to a Democratic president was Bill Clinton, at 80% in 1992 - so likely an 11% ceiling in increased support.

So let's say we had an election today, all else is equal (obviously it would not be), and that state populations of Arab Americans and Jewish Americans vote in accordance with national trends (another broad un-true assumption but the best data I have). Let's assume Biden enjoys an 11% increase in support in every state of Jewish-American voters, and a 42% decrease in Arab American support. We will assume uniform distribution of voting / non-voting aged population - 77.5% voting age, and then uniform turnout of 66% of that 77.5%

Arizona:

• A Jewish-American population of 124,000. 63,000 estimated turned out voters. Net gain of 7,000 voters assuming 11% increase from 69% support for Biden in 2020.
• Arab-American population of 95,000, 48,000 estimated voters who will turn out. Net loss of 20,160 voters assuming 42% decreased support.

Net result of 13,160 less votes for Biden in a state he won by 11,000 votes. Arizona's 11 electoral votes go to Republican candidate.

Georgia:

• A Jewish-American population of 141,000. 72,000 estimated turned out voters. Net gain of 8,000 voters assuming 11% increase from 69% support for Biden in 2020.
• Arab-American population of 81,000, 41,400 estimated voters who will turn out. Net loss of 17,400 voters assuming 42% decreased support.

Net result of 9,400 less votes for Biden in a state he won by 13,000. Georgia margin of victory shrinks to 3,600.

Michigan:

• A Jewish-American population of 88,000. 45,000 estimated turned out voters. Net gain of 5,000 voters assuming 11% increase from 69% support for Biden in 2020.
• Arab-American population of 500,000, 255,000 estimated voters who will turn out. Net loss of 107,400 voters assuming 42% decreased support.

Net result of 102,400 less votes for Biden in a state he won by 15,500. Michigan's 16 electoral votes go to the Republican candidate.

Wisconsin:

• A Jewish-American population of 33,500. 17,000 estimated turned out voters. Net gain of 2,000 voters assuming 11% increase from 69% support for Biden in 2020.
• Arab-American population of 60,000, 30,700 estimated voters who will turn out. Net loss of 12,900 voters assuming 42% decreased support.

Net result of 11,000 less votes for Biden in a state he won by 10,000. Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes go to the Republican candidate.

11 Arizona + 16 Michigan + 10 Wisconsin = 37 electoral votes.

306 (Biden's electoral votes) - 37 = 269
232 (Trump's electoral votes) + 37 = 269

Tie goes to the House, where each state gets one vote according to who has the majority of the House of Representatives by party for each state - Republicans currently have a majority of House seats in 27 states, so there you have it, Republican president.

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I really don't think it's safe to assume that electoral support would fall by the exact amount the polling suggests. Especially since Joe Biden's ultimate opponent is not likely to have any more pro-Palestine a position than he does.

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I think that's fair, but also keep in mind that I'm not even shifting from Democrat to Republican, or adjusting +5% Republican support even, I'm just assuming lost Democrat votes, i.e. they just don't turnout, or they turn-out and vote third party / leave the presidential option blank. This is also assuming every other single thing is equal and this is the only change from 2020 to now, which is obviously ludicrous. But the point isn't to be exact, it's to demonstrate that the path to the White House is at peril in very real ways by alienating or losing out on Arab Americans, especially in Michigan.

And the differences between answering a polling questions vs actually voting. eg, consider Jewish women who are pro-choice...gotta believe they are staying loyal to the D brand, regardless of what happens in Israel.

wifeisafurd said:

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Just to make the domestic side of all this more murky:

House Republicans rolled out the 13-page bill on Monday, which would completely offer this aide to Israel by rescinding the $14.3 billion in Adie to Israel from the Inflation Reduction Act passed last year. Specifically, the bill targets some of the $80 billion the package allocated toward the Internal Revenue Service for audits on wealthy individuals. It also doesn't address any aide to Gaza post-whatever Israel is doing.

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DOA

But on brand for Republicans to make this about supporting wealthy donors and big business. The gay hating Speaker specifically wants to remove investments towards a free e-filing service that would save average Americans billions but take revenue away from companies like H&R Block. It would also help rich tax cheats.

Everything Minot, movielover, and the others have been voting for.

*I always preferred Glenn Frey's vocals to Don Henley's, even though Frey said he was embarrassed to do a lead vocal with a voice like Don's available.
The 1999 version has Don Felder and Joe Walsh aboard, two elite musicians.

In 2002, Israel launched an air strike in Gaza targeting a top Hamas leader. The attack also killed 14 Palestinians, and 9 children. President Bush's spokesperson Ari Fleischer publicly condemned the attack.

21 short years later we've shifted so far to the right that we have a Democratic president refusing to call for restraint and refusing to criticize Israeli killings of civilians, and intelligent people justifying to themselves and others the slaughter of thousands of civilians. Oy vey.

Anyways, here's what the pinko liberal lunatic fringe left-wing W. Bush Administration had to say about Israeli strikes on military leaders killing civilians:

"The president has said repeatedly that Israel has to be mindful of the consequences of its actions in order to preserve the path to peace in the Middle East. The president views this as a heavy-handed action that is not consistent with dedication to peace in the Middle East," Mr. Fleischer said.

Mr. Fleischer said the president is a friend of Israel but feels it is important to speak out now because of the circumstances surrounding the Israeli action. "In this instance in Gaza, this was a deliberate attack against a building in which civilians were known to be located," he said.

"This message has been conveyed to the prime minister's office through the embassy. Included in the conveyance of the message and the president's thoughts about this is the regret of the innocent lives including the children's lives that have been lost," Mr. Fleischer said.

The target of the attack was a Hamas leader at the top of Israel's most wanted list. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon called the operation a success, though he said he regrets the civilian casualties. Other Israeli officials said they had no intention of hitting innocent people.

The White House spokesman rejected that claim, noting they attacked apartment buildings in a densely populated area. "This president has been and will continue to be a lead defender of Israel around the world and will speak out about Israel's right to self-defense. This is an instance in which the United States and Israel do not see eye-to-eye," Mr. Fleischer said.

https://www.voanews.com/a/a-13-a-2002-07-23-28-bush-66291392/541258.html

tequila4kapp said:

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Less a shift to the right and more a human reaction to having your citizens burned alive, women raped, children beheaded, citizens kidnapped, etc. The 2nd Intifada wasn't a basket of roses but this invasion and the killing spree is next level stuff.

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Oh well in that case let's just greenlight killing them all I guess? Or did you have a specific number in mind for the appropriate human reaction? Clearly it's something higher than 8,000.