Not officially publicly on record, but in private comments to members of parliament . . .wifeisafurd said:Not sure where you are getting your information on internal Isreal politics. Netanyahu actually is on the record for supporting a two state solution, it is just what those two states look like changes a lot. .Netanyahu outlines vision for two-state solution - CNNCNN.comhttps://www.cnn.com 2023/02/01 middleeast netan...sycasey said:socaltownie said:But I really think that for Northern Ireland to work the Republicans needed to stop seeing themselves as seperated from Ireland by the nasty roundheads and the Protestants needed to stop thinking about themselves as the last bastion of Empire and the traditional English ways. A key was a northern Ireland Identity.wifeisafurd said:Sure, a lot of that makes sense. Israel is breaking Hamas, but it there game plan is to occupy Gaza permanently or wipe out every Hamas fighter they are being unrealistic. It seems more likely Bliken's plan for robust PLO rule in Gaza makes more sense. Israel is going to have to make concessions after this mess is over, and it won't alway be pretty for them dealing with the PLO in Gaza, but if they want peace and US support they need to get on board. I assume Blikin is literally telling Israel that right now. I think Ireland is a good example that it can be done, as is Egypt and Israel. But the PLO will have to keep the remnants of Hamas in check, which I think they desire to do after what Hamas did to them. There is no way Israel can think they can rule over several million people.socaltownie said:the problem is that it is nearly impossible to win coiunterinsurgency wars if we define winning as 100% security for Isreali jewish citizens (which is how Isreali has defined it). So they dominate the battlefield. Unless they have idenfitied every hamas footsolider give it a few years and they will emerge again.wifeisafurd said:I respectfully disagree with you military assessment. It seems pretty obvious that the Israeli army is dominating the battle field, despite drones or thousand of missile shot off by Hamas, and that no one is coming from the North as long those US battleships and planes on battleships are in range.Cal88 said:wifeisafurd said:Israel is not stopping until Hamas is decimated and there is regime change. If you listen to Blinken, that is also what the US is advocating. The US is calling for temporary humanitarian stops to bring to Gaza basics like food and water, but there will be war until Hamas is gone and the US tries to install the PLO for governance. The approach in Blinken's mind is that of a separate country run by a bolstered PLO is what brings peace (kinda the "real peace" another poster was talking about).dimitrig said:
I think there is a path to peace and it has to start with Israel deescalating the conflict.
If Israel stops bombing civilians and provides aid to the affected it would go a long way toward restoring Israel's reputation. Maybe Israel can call for UN peacekeepers in Gaza. If Israel stands down and Hamas continues to lob rockets at them then they can take control of the narrative again to be viewed as victims of unprovoked aggression. Right now they are losing support from the international community.
Israel has to take the moral high ground. Otherwise, they are proving to be everything Hamas has made them out to be. They were sucked into this conflict and they can extricate themselves just as easily. The US needs to organize international pressure against them to stop this madness.
Whether Israel, which controls things on the ground, buys off on this remains to be seen, but none of this has anything to do with moral high grounds. Moral high ground in places like the Middle East are just words people in in the west use. You don't have to take my word for it, you can go back and read the article posted by Bearrister above, quoting Blinken.
Pragmatically speaking, and humanitarian reasons aside (that's a big caveat there), Israel cannot "decimate" Hamas without completely obliterating its public image, which has been one of its main weapons and one of the main reasons it has managed to maintain its existence as a colonial state. It will undoubtedly hold on to a segment of conservative American Boomers and Evangelical Christian zionists who literally worship that state, but it will lose support across the rest of western public opinion.
As well, "decimating" Hamas will not work, as the collateral damage is somewhere over 95%. It's going to create tens of thousands more orphans and young men with nothing to lose whose relatives have been pulverized.
Israel -and the US- have to recognize that we are in a new global geopolitical context, where aircraft carriers are nearly obsolete and stand-off weapons like drones and missiles rule the battlefield. This means that Israel will no longer be able to maintain military hegemony over its neighbors. Its only viable -and moral- choice is to retrace the steps of slain prime minister YItzak Rabin and sue for a real peace with the region in the form of the 2-state solution, which is acceptable to a large majority of Palestinians and to every state in the region, including Iran.
The US and its allies have made a calculation, for better to worse, that Hamas must be taken out for peace with a two state solution to work, and further that Iran must be contained. Like I said before, it could work. What could go wrong? Israel could screw it up, the PLO has a history of corruption, things regionally could change quickly, etc. Welcome to the realities of the Middle East. Your enemy today is your ally tomorrow.
Looking at some things US allies do with impunity in the Middle East, such as Saudi or Egypt not to mention Iran and others, public relations and moral high grounds are built on quick sand in that part of the world. Sorta like Africa as well. We try to demand everyone play by western values, and I'm not seeing a lot of success at that. Somalia should have been a lesson. China's diplomatic take over of Africa should be a lesson.China and Africa: Human Rights Perspective - JSTORJSTORhttps://www.jstor.org stable. Israel is part of US and Saudi strategy of containing Iran. That isn't going to change, because short term public opinion is not happy with Israel. There are much bigger things at play than what some liberals protesting in the US or Europe think.
In an area where military action is a constant, I'm not sure Israel doesn't want a reputation as hard arse, who will destroy you if you attack them. When survival is at stake, Israel seems happy to take some PR hits. When people who live in the West start talking about their values or their public opinion, the rest of the world tends to view this high minded approach as hypocritical.
I don't think the Biden administration is very concerned about what the left is saying on Gaza or much else. Those voters really have no alternatives. They are making judgements on an international relations construct, not on idealism. Ideals are preferred and I suppose we try to teach them to younger generations, though ideals may vary in most of the country. They are a sort of mental model, a target, whereby people, especially those in the west, can communally understand how the world should work. Unfortunately, they block understandings of how the world does work, and that is where are policy makers live.
I keep seeing posts that a wave of young populism will take over this time. After watching the generation older than me protest around campuses, tell everyone they will change the world, and money doesn't matter, and then completely change their values so they can run around retirement villages in golf carts chanting white power, I have to think this is the arrogance of youth and idealism that certainly existed when I left college in me. I want the world not to have wars, but now I'm cynical being older that progress can happen or be saved without them. The thing is as we grow older and more experienced, are ideals change, and we incorporate thoughts based on the way we find the world actually is. This is a long way of saying is most of today's younger generations will think differently over time and become the boomers of tomorrow.
This is the :"logic" of Ulster. The RUC (and occasionally the British) thought they could eliminate every republican and member of the Provisional IRA. They clearly could throw a bunch in jail. But they never created absolute security in Ulster. It took (finally) a realization that both catholic and protestants were first and foremost "citizens" of the 6 counties and their willingness to forge a multi-sectarian "thing" (not a state, but something akin to it).
Until some creative and couragous Isreali politician figure out how to square the demographics and then the traditional importance of Isreal being a "jewish" state I don't see that.
One way would be to enshire a constittuion, with difficult amendment processes, providing for the three religions of the levant special status and special immigration status. Big asks. But I really do believe the only way forward is for both "sides:" to see themselves as mutually legiimate "citizens" of that geographic space.
Any actual long-term solution seems impossible as long as Netanyahu or anyone like him remains in charge. He is on record as opposing any kind of multiple-state solution and has actively worked against one.
And yes, the same goes for Hamas, but they don't really have the power to change Israeli leadership by force.
The problem Netanyahu faces is whether his right wing coalition stays in place with a 2 state solution because the ultra right doesn't support a two state solution. With migration and population changes, the right is Israel is gaining in number. Blinken to get Israel to support his two state approach with the PLO governing has to get support from a different coalition, which will need to include Netanyahu's party in order to be a majority.
https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-748435
Quote:
Palestinian hopes of establishing a sovereign state "must be eliminated," Netanyahu told Knesset (Israeli parliament) committee members in a closed-door meeting about his government's plans for the eventual departure of PA President Mahmoud Abbas.