2020 Election - Catch-all Thread

59,236 Views | 1707 Replies | Last: 20 hrs ago by sycasey
sycasey
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B.A. Bearacus said:

Warren closing the gap.




Don't get too excited by one poll, but . . . it does look like Warren is the one candidate who has consistently gained ground on the leader, unlike others who have bounced around.
dajo9
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I like Warren. I told myself after 2016 I would get behind whoever excites the young generations but my cautious (scared) side has been holding onto Biden. Not sure if Warren has won the youth over but I'm watching.
An old white dude
B.A. Bearacus
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Anarchistbear
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Biden gets 47 percent of black Democrats, with 16 percent for Sanders, 8 percent for Warren and 1 percent for Harris;

Women Democrats go 31 percent for Biden, 24 percent for Warren, 10 percent for Sanders and 7 percent for Harris;

Very liberal Democrats go 40 percent for Warren, 20 percent for Sanders, 19 percent for Biden and 7 percent for Harris;

Somewhat liberal Democrats go 28 percent for Biden, 20 percent for Warren, 14 percent for Sanders and 10 percent for Harris;

Moderate/conservative Democrats go 43 percent for Biden, 11 percent for Warren, 9 percent for Sanders, and 4 percent each for Harris and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
BearNakedLadies
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Anarchistbear said:

Biden gets 47 percent of black Democrats, with 16 percent for Sanders, 8 percent for Warren and 1 percent for Harris;

Women Democrats go 31 percent for Biden, 24 percent for Warren, 10 percent for Sanders and 7 percent for Harris;

Very liberal Democrats go 40 percent for Warren, 20 percent for Sanders, 19 percent for Biden and 7 percent for Harris;

Somewhat liberal Democrats go 28 percent for Biden, 20 percent for Warren, 14 percent for Sanders and 10 percent for Harris;

Moderate/conservative Democrats go 43 percent for Biden, 11 percent for Warren, 9 percent for Sanders, and 4 percent each for Harris and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Buttigieg's fifteen minutes of fame are long past over. Time to GTFO.

Frankly Harris is not far from that point as well. If she's not connecting with women or blacks, she has no reason to be in the race and frankly she has never articulated any sort of reason why people should pick her over the other candidates other than that sense of self-entitlement to the job that made me prefer Barack and Bernie over Hillary. Other than the fact that I would really enjoy her tearing Trump apart in a presidential debate, she's done nothing to articulate why she should be president.
going4roses
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Anarchistbear said:

Biden gets 47 percent of black Democrats, .


Ugh i threw up in my mouth
Anarchistbear
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going4roses said:

Anarchistbear said:

Biden gets 47 percent of black Democrats, .


Ugh i threw up in my mouth


I use my wife's family in Mississippi as a guide to this. Democrats. The elderly are all for Biden- largely because of Obama; the younger females for Warren; the younger males for Sanders. But who votes? The old ones.
dajo9
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B.A. Bearacus said:


Starred
An old white dude
going4roses
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Unbelievable... thanks to who and what ... blacks will continue to come in last

I actually know a few older black men who voted for trump in the hopes the uprising would start (kicking off the real substantive change) trump has let them down all of the would voted for bernie( for their kids)
BearNIt
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going4roses said:

Unbelievable... thanks to who and what ... blacks will continue to come in last

I actually know a few older black men who voted for trump in the hopes the uprising would start (kicking off the real substantive change) trump has let them down all of the would voted for bernie( for their kids)
Blacks are pragmatic and have been surveying the landscape.
1. They want Trump out of office.
2. They will not go as far left as progressive would like to take the party.
3. Those likely to vote tend to older, but Trump is doing his best to register and get out the youth vote.
4. They feel that Obama has given Biden the stamp of approval by Biden's selection as his VP.

When you put these all together they spell B-I-D-E-N.. As long as he can fend off attacks from other democratic candidates he will be the democratic nominee. If Trump continues his current path he will not grow his base and those who took a chance on him wanting change will see none and will be up for grabs. Texas has to be in play now given the retirement of 4 Republicans in the state and the shootings in El Paso, Tx. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan were only won by less than 78,000 votes. You had a large number of democratic voters stay home in 2016 due to the choice of the democratic nominee and Russian interference. Re-engagement of the voters who sat out and voter registration of key demographics: suburban women, young black, and young Latino voters should be enough to overcome 78,000 votes

Going forward we will have the main candidates on the debate stage and Trump will continue doing what he does which is pissing of everybody but his base. If the economy starts to slow down his support will drop like a rock.
sycasey
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BearNakedLadies said:

sycasey said:

Anarchistbear said:

Biden continues to poll strongly no matter what he says or the reactions of the twitter sphere - in a lot of polls he is equal to Warren plus Sanders. Harris down to single figures after her"breakout" performance- Tulsi skunked her. The rest aren't even worth thinking about. All of Mayor Pete'.s money has to go somewhere.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Yeah, next thing to look out for is what happens when the field is narrowed down and all of these candidates have to be on stage together.
IMO, there is a Biden constituency and an "Oh God, not Biden" constituency. The not-Biden field has to thin out before any of them can realistically gain ground on him.
There's probably a lot of truth to this.

Let's say Warren consolidates the progressive/not-Biden support as other candidates drop out. Maybe Bernie throws his support to her. Does she then make some plays for the moderate black voters that haven't supported her thus far? She might have a tough time doing this relative to someone like Harris, though maybe an easier time than Bernie.
Another Bear
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Once a GOP hotbed, Orange County now has more registered Democrats than Republicans
BearNakedLadies
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BearNIt said:


Texas has to be in play now given the retirement of 4 Republicans in the state and the shootings in El Paso, Tx.
That is just wishful thinking
sycasey
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BearNakedLadies said:

BearNIt said:


Texas has to be in play now given the retirement of 4 Republicans in the state and the shootings in El Paso, Tx.
That is just wishful thinking
bearister
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"When Gerald Ford became president, he told the nation: 'Our long national nightmare is over.' Today's long, and perhaps occasionally lethal, national embarrassment will continue at least until January 20, 2021. If it continues longer, it will be more than an embarrassment to the nation, this will be an indictment of it." George Will
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BearNIt
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BearNakedLadies said:

BearNIt said:


Texas has to be in play now given the retirement of 4 Republicans in the state and the shootings in El Paso, Tx.
That is just wishful thinking
Nothing lights a fire under a certain demographic than seeing people who could be their mother, father, sister, brother ,or grandparent hunted and slaughtered by a white supremacist whose manifesto closely mirrored the Republican leader's rhetoric. That demographic will have a massive turnout to vote and make sure that their anger is acknowledged and is demonstrated by voting against the party whose rhetoric they believe disparaged them and stoked the fire of hate. Just look at California and Pete Wilson's run for Governor using Prop 187. The Republican party in California is an afterthought. The Republican base is fixed, it is not going to have a fifth of the growth that the Latino voting eligible population will have in Texas.

Per the Texas Legislative Council, An actual count of Spanish surnames, based on the Secretary of State voting records, later revealed that the Latino vote grew more significantly in every measure between 2012 and 2016. While the eligible Hispanic population increased by 15 percent, the surname count showed that their voting registration rose by 20 percent, and their turnout, by nearly 30 percent, much higher than exit poll assessments.
Latinos are registering and voting at significantly higher rates than their population is growing.

When people are afraid that their loved ones could be killed by some hate filled POS, they will do everything possible to make sure that scenario doesn't take place, and that means getting out to register and vote.

Per the U.S.Census Bureau about 830,000 more Texas Latinos voted in 2018 than 2014. Now you have a demographic that is pissed and mobilizing, and they are going to take it out on somebody in the 2020 elections.

Again, Trump and the white supremacist are the greatest voter registration and get out to vote program the democrats could ever hope for.
Another Bear
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re: Texas turning blue. No one ever thought California would flip deep, dark blue after the Reagan Revolution and all...but it sure did. Prop 187 was the tipping point.

Can't say for sure but a mass murder aimed at Latinos in Texas, and spurred on by Trump, could have a similar fate: wake up voters. People in El Paso don't want Trump to visit.

Also there's "Texodus", where the rats are fleeing the sinking ship.

I think Texas can be flipped. Won't be easy but if it does, GOP in big, big trouble.
Unit2Sucks
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If Texas flips, got to believe Florida will be blue as well. Those 2 alone would result in a massive landslide for the democrats but would be accompanied by swing states going blue (something like the map below) which is pretty hard to imagine with the polarization that we've seen in the post-Clinton era that largely disregards everything other than party for most voters.

If it does happen, I'm confident Trump and the GOP will claim massive fraud and seek to challenge the legitimacy of the results.





link to interactive map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/kLw8Z
dajo9
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Unit2Sucks said:

If Texas flips, got to believe Florida will be blue as well. Those 2 alone would result in a massive landslide for the democrats but would be accompanied by swing states going blue (something like the map below) which is pretty hard to imagine with the polarization that we've seen in the post-Clinton era that largely disregards everything other than party for most voters.

If it does happen, I'm confident Trump and the GOP will claim massive fraud and seek to challenge the legitimacy of the results.





link to interactive map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/kLw8Z

270 to win is a fun site to play around on. I could see that map, except with the rust belt going red (Georgia and North Carolina purple). A complete realignment between productive successful states and unproductive failed states. The failed states would still have the advantage in the Senate. What a way to run a country.
An old white dude
bearister
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I have been as negative as anyone with regard to the chances of dethroning the Orange Tub of Guts in 2020...however, I am really starting to get a feeling in my gut that tRump over played his hand with the hate rhetoric and that the mass shootings may be what brings him down.... PROVIDED that mom and pop in the flyovers that hold the key to the Electoral College votes are fundamentally decent at their core. I think there is a good chance they are. The real danger is whether the power of the Fox News Propaganda Machine can override this by convincing them they are doing the right thing voting for tRump.
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sycasey
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Unit2Sucks said:

If Texas flips, got to believe Florida will be blue as well. Those 2 alone would result in a massive landslide for the democrats but would be accompanied by swing states going blue (something like the map below) which is pretty hard to imagine with the polarization that we've seen in the post-Clinton era that largely disregards everything other than party for most voters.

If it does happen, I'm confident Trump and the GOP will claim massive fraud and seek to challenge the legitimacy of the results.





link to interactive map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/kLw8Z

Florida has a very different kind of Hispanic population than Texas, with a lot of Cubans who are more politically conservative. It's not safe to say that state would flip if and when Texas does.

But Texas alone would be lights-out for the GOP.
B.A. Bearacus
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sycasey said:


But Texas alone would be lights-out for the GOP.
It may take a while, but yes the lights would eventually go out.

B.A. Bearacus
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Unit2Sucks
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sycasey said:


Florida has a very different kind of Hispanic population than Texas, with a lot of Cubans who are more politically conservative. It's not safe to say that state would flip if and when Texas does.

But Texas alone would be lights-out for the GOP.
Yes, but Florida has been consistently in play and Trump is underwater there. The fact that it's seen an influx from Puerto Rico that were abandoned by Trump can't help his chances there. I have a hard time imagining Trump winning Florida and losing Texas. Just one year ago Beto lost to Ted Cruz who isn't even popular in Texas.
GBear4Life
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bearister said:

I have been as negative as anyone with regard to the chances of dethroning the Orange Tub of Guts in 2020...however, I am really starting to get a feeling in my gut that tRump over played his hand with the hate rhetoric and that the mass shootings may be what brings him down.... PROVIDED that mom and pop in the flyovers that hold the key to the Electoral College votes are fundamentally decent at their core. I think there is a good chance they are. The real danger is whether the power of the Fox News Propaganda Machine can override this by convincing them they are doing the right thing voting for tRump.
solipsism 101

veiled arrogance 101
bearister
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GB, during the 2016 Presidential Campaign I posted a comment that posed the following question: Do you think your candidate has a fundamental problem when the Alt Right Movement is attracted to his espoused political philosophy?

How would you have answered that question in 2016?
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GBear4Life
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bearister said:

GB, during the 2016 Presidential Campaign I posted a comment that posed the following question: Do you think your candidate has a fundamental problem when the Alt Right Movement is attracted to his espoused political philosophy?

How would you have answered that question in 2016?
I'd say that's a stupid question. And of course, all you're seeking is affirmation.

How hard is it for you dotards to understand that individuals aren't culpable for what idiots who support them do.

If I'm a political candidate, and I tell CNN's Jim Acosta to "go f * c k your mother" and a bunch of degenerates who voted for me go out and try and f * c k their mothers, I'm not apologizing for my comment, nor am I culpable for a bunch of degenerates going out and f * c king their mothers.

It's been pointed out numerous times by other posters where nefarious groups or individuals supported Obama and presidents before them. Obama isn't culpable for what other who support him do, only what he himself supports
BearNIt
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sycasey said:

Unit2Sucks said:

If Texas flips, got to believe Florida will be blue as well. Those 2 alone would result in a massive landslide for the democrats but would be accompanied by swing states going blue (something like the map below) which is pretty hard to imagine with the polarization that we've seen in the post-Clinton era that largely disregards everything other than party for most voters.

If it does happen, I'm confident Trump and the GOP will claim massive fraud and seek to challenge the legitimacy of the results.





link to interactive map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/kLw8Z

Florida has a very different kind of Hispanic population than Texas, with a lot of Cubans who are more politically conservative. It's not safe to say that state would flip if and when Texas does.

But Texas alone would be lights-out for the GOP.
I absolutely agree with you that Florida is different as I have lived there. You are right in that the older Cuban population tends to be more conservative as they are still influenced by Batista vs. Castro Revolution. Younger Cubans tend to be more liberal as a rule. Many would like to go to Cuba and create business opportunities for themselves. As demographics continue to change the state will be come more liberal. The 2018 Senate and Governor races were decided by less than 1%..
Another Bear
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bearister said:

I have been as negative as anyone with regard to the chances of dethroning the Orange Tub of Guts in 2020...however, I am really starting to get a feeling in my gut that tRump over played his hand with the hate rhetoric and that the mass shootings may be what brings him down.... PROVIDED that mom and pop in the flyovers that hold the key to the Electoral College votes are fundamentally decent at their core. I think there is a good chance they are. The real danger is whether the power of the Fox News Propaganda Machine can override this by convincing them they are doing the right thing voting for tRump.
Agree. I think Trump grossly miscalculated the racist stuff and he didn't figure on El Paso or Gilroy happening but both did. But you know what, a 10 y.o. kid playing with matches and a powder keg doesn't understand the risks either.

The mass shootings are the game changer because it make Trump's racist rants dangerous in a very real way. Murdering people in cold blood after a racist rant should worry and scare the majority of this country, and it does...minus the white nationalists, hard Trumpkins. Even conservatives who usually sit on their hands are very uneasy and some Trumpkins are saying it's too much, won't vote for him.
GBear4Life
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Another Bear said:

bearister said:

I have been as negative as anyone with regard to the chances of dethroning the Orange Tub of Guts in 2020...however, I am really starting to get a feeling in my gut that tRump over played his hand with the hate rhetoric and that the mass shootings may be what brings him down.... PROVIDED that mom and pop in the flyovers that hold the key to the Electoral College votes are fundamentally decent at their core. I think there is a good chance they are. The real danger is whether the power of the Fox News Propaganda Machine can override this by convincing them they are doing the right thing voting for tRump.
Trump grossly miscalculated the racist stuff and he didn't figure on El Paso or Gilroy happening but both did
Conveniently left out the Dayton shooter who had a hard-on for Liz Warren I see lmao for no other purpose than to assert your fallacious narrative as somewhat credible

Can you please stop being so predictable
BearNIt
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GBear4Life said:

Another Bear said:

bearister said:

I have been as negative as anyone with regard to the chances of dethroning the Orange Tub of Guts in 2020...however, I am really starting to get a feeling in my gut that tRump over played his hand with the hate rhetoric and that the mass shootings may be what brings him down.... PROVIDED that mom and pop in the flyovers that hold the key to the Electoral College votes are fundamentally decent at their core. I think there is a good chance they are. The real danger is whether the power of the Fox News Propaganda Machine can override this by convincing them they are doing the right thing voting for tRump.
Trump grossly miscalculated the racist stuff and he didn't figure on El Paso or Gilroy happening but both did
Conveniently left out the Dayton shooter who had a hard-on for Liz Warren I see lmao for no other purpose than to assert your fallacious narrative as somewhat credible

Can you please stop being so predictable
The difference between Warren and Trump is one was spouting racist rhetoric which was parroted in a manifesto by a POS mass shooter who killed people for being Mexican and the other not so much. I can't remember seeing a motive for the Dayton shooter, am I missing something?
going4roses
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Blacks? Smh
sycasey
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Unit2Sucks said:

sycasey said:


Florida has a very different kind of Hispanic population than Texas, with a lot of Cubans who are more politically conservative. It's not safe to say that state would flip if and when Texas does.

But Texas alone would be lights-out for the GOP.
Yes, but Florida has been consistently in play and Trump is underwater there. The fact that it's seen an influx from Puerto Rico that were abandoned by Trump can't help his chances there. I have a hard time imagining Trump winning Florida and losing Texas. Just one year ago Beto lost to Ted Cruz who isn't even popular in Texas.
Yes, I suppose in 2020 it's likely that if Texas flips then Florida does too. But over the long term I wouldn't necessarily expect FL to become a steady blue state faster than TX.
BearNakedLadies
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BearNIt said:


Again, Trump and the white supremacist are the greatest voter registration and get out to vote program the democrats could ever hope for.
They are, but I'm taking bets right now from people that think that the Democratic candidate is going to win Texas.
Anarchistbear
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There's only one idiot that might take that bet

Some recent polls show the race between Clinton and Donald Trump in Texas is in single digits. A new ad from the Clinton campaign running in Texas touts her endorsement from the Dallas Morning News, which hasn't picked a Democrat for president in more than 70 years.

Clinton is positioned to win the White House if she gets just the battleground states that are already leaning to the Democrats. Her campaign says it's putting the "lion's share" of resources in traditional battleground states like Ohio and North Carolina, which remain toss-ups. But they also have the luxury of being able to invest in some states that traditionally go to Republicans.

Clinton is confident in her position in enough battleground states to clear 270 electoral votes, and has some money to spend in the last three weeks of the campaign, putting some funds into states that could help secure a Democratic majority in the Senate next year makes sense. "It's always been important to Secretary Clinton that we partner together with all candidates," Mook said.

This spending also puts Republicans on defense in a way they wouldn't be if Trump were more competitive in states like Virginia, Colorado and Michigan. That would have caused the Clinton campaign to pour everything into defending those electoral votes instead of being able to expand its map.

Arizona has voted Democratic only once in a presidential race since 1952. Recent polls show a dead heat in that state, and the Clinton campaign believes Trump's rhetoric about Mexicans will motivate Latinos in the state to turn out for the Democrats.


For Clinton's team, the desire is to not just beat Trump, but to trounce him. She talks about the choice in this election in moral terms, and her allies have talked of demonstrating that Trump's candidacy was rejected by the country in the strongest possible terms on election night.
 
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