B.A. Bearacus said:

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Warren closing the gap.

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Don't get too excited by one poll, but . . . it does look like Warren is the one candidate who has consistently gained ground on the leader, unlike others who have bounced around.

I like Warren. I told myself after 2016 I would get behind whoever excites the young generations but my cautious (scared) side has been holding onto Biden. Not sure if Warren has won the youth over but I'm watching.

Biden gets 47 percent of black Democrats, with 16 percent for Sanders, 8 percent for Warren and 1 percent for Harris;

Women Democrats go 31 percent for Biden, 24 percent for Warren, 10 percent for Sanders and 7 percent for Harris;

Very liberal Democrats go 40 percent for Warren, 20 percent for Sanders, 19 percent for Biden and 7 percent for Harris;

Somewhat liberal Democrats go 28 percent for Biden, 20 percent for Warren, 14 percent for Sanders and 10 percent for Harris;

Moderate/conservative Democrats go 43 percent for Biden, 11 percent for Warren, 9 percent for Sanders, and 4 percent each for Harris and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Anarchistbear said:

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Biden gets 47 percent of black Democrats, with 16 percent for Sanders, 8 percent for Warren and 1 percent for Harris;

Women Democrats go 31 percent for Biden, 24 percent for Warren, 10 percent for Sanders and 7 percent for Harris;

Very liberal Democrats go 40 percent for Warren, 20 percent for Sanders, 19 percent for Biden and 7 percent for Harris;

Somewhat liberal Democrats go 28 percent for Biden, 20 percent for Warren, 14 percent for Sanders and 10 percent for Harris;

Moderate/conservative Democrats go 43 percent for Biden, 11 percent for Warren, 9 percent for Sanders, and 4 percent each for Harris and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

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Buttigieg's fifteen minutes of fame are long past over. Time to GTFO.

Frankly Harris is not far from that point as well. If she's not connecting with women or blacks, she has no reason to be in the race and frankly she has never articulated any sort of reason why people should pick her over the other candidates other than that sense of self-entitlement to the job that made me prefer Barack and Bernie over Hillary. Other than the fact that I would really enjoy her tearing Trump apart in a presidential debate, she's done nothing to articulate why she should be president.

Anarchistbear said:

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Biden gets 47 percent of black Democrats, .

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Ugh i threw up in my mouth

going4roses said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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Biden gets 47 percent of black Democrats, .

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Ugh i threw up in my mouth

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I use my wife's family in Mississippi as a guide to this. Democrats. The elderly are all for Biden- largely because of Obama; the younger females for Warren; the younger males for Sanders. But who votes? The old ones.

B.A. Bearacus said:

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Starred

Unbelievable... thanks to who and what ... blacks will continue to come in last

I actually know a few older black men who voted for trump in the hopes the uprising would start (kicking off the real substantive change) trump has let them down all of the would voted for bernie( for their kids)

going4roses said:

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Unbelievable... thanks to who and what ... blacks will continue to come in last

I actually know a few older black men who voted for trump in the hopes the uprising would start (kicking off the real substantive change) trump has let them down all of the would voted for bernie( for their kids)

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Blacks are pragmatic and have been surveying the landscape.
1. They want Trump out of office.
2. They will not go as far left as progressive would like to take the party.
3. Those likely to vote tend to older, but Trump is doing his best to register and get out the youth vote.
4. They feel that Obama has given Biden the stamp of approval by Biden's selection as his VP.

When you put these all together they spell B-I-D-E-N.. As long as he can fend off attacks from other democratic candidates he will be the democratic nominee. If Trump continues his current path he will not grow his base and those who took a chance on him wanting change will see none and will be up for grabs. Texas has to be in play now given the retirement of 4 Republicans in the state and the shootings in El Paso, Tx. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan were only won by less than 78,000 votes. You had a large number of democratic voters stay home in 2016 due to the choice of the democratic nominee and Russian interference. Re-engagement of the voters who sat out and voter registration of key demographics: suburban women, young black, and young Latino voters should be enough to overcome 78,000 votes

Going forward we will have the main candidates on the debate stage and Trump will continue doing what he does which is pissing of everybody but his base. If the economy starts to slow down his support will drop like a rock.

BearNakedLadies said:

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sycasey said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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Biden continues to poll strongly no matter what he says or the reactions of the twitter sphere - in a lot of polls he is equal to Warren plus Sanders. Harris down to single figures after her"breakout" performance- Tulsi skunked her. The rest aren't even worth thinking about. All of Mayor Pete'.s money has to go somewhere.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

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Yeah, next thing to look out for is what happens when the field is narrowed down and all of these candidates have to be on stage together.

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IMO, there is a Biden constituency and an "Oh God, not Biden" constituency. The not-Biden field has to thin out before any of them can realistically gain ground on him.

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There's probably a lot of truth to this.

Let's say Warren consolidates the progressive/not-Biden support as other candidates drop out. Maybe Bernie throws his support to her. Does she then make some plays for the moderate black voters that haven't supported her thus far? She might have a tough time doing this relative to someone like Harris, though maybe an easier time than Bernie.

Once a GOP hotbed, Orange County now has more registered Democrats than Republicans

BearNIt said:

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Texas has to be in play now given the retirement of 4 Republicans in the state and the shootings in El Paso, Tx.

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That is just wishful thinking

BearNakedLadies said:

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BearNIt said:

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Texas has to be in play now given the retirement of 4 Republicans in the state and the shootings in El Paso, Tx.

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That is just wishful thinking

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"When Gerald Ford became president, he told the nation: 'Our long national nightmare is over.' Today's long, and perhaps occasionally lethal, national embarrassment will continue at least until January 20, 2021. If it continues longer, it will be more than an embarrassment to the nation, this will be an indictment of it." George Will

BearNakedLadies said:

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BearNIt said:

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Texas has to be in play now given the retirement of 4 Republicans in the state and the shootings in El Paso, Tx.

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That is just wishful thinking

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Nothing lights a fire under a certain demographic than seeing people who could be their mother, father, sister, brother ,or grandparent hunted and slaughtered by a white supremacist whose manifesto closely mirrored the Republican leader's rhetoric. That demographic will have a massive turnout to vote and make sure that their anger is acknowledged and is demonstrated by voting against the party whose rhetoric they believe disparaged them and stoked the fire of hate. Just look at California and Pete Wilson's run for Governor using Prop 187. The Republican party in California is an afterthought. The Republican base is fixed, it is not going to have a fifth of the growth that the Latino voting eligible population will have in Texas.

Per the Texas Legislative Council, An actual count of Spanish surnames, based on the Secretary of State voting records, later revealed that the Latino vote grew more significantly in every measure between 2012 and 2016. While the eligible Hispanic population increased by 15 percent, the surname count showed that their voting registration rose by 20 percent, and their turnout, by nearly 30 percent, much higher than exit poll assessments.
Latinos are registering and voting at significantly higher rates than their population is growing.

When people are afraid that their loved ones could be killed by some hate filled POS, they will do everything possible to make sure that scenario doesn't take place, and that means getting out to register and vote.

Per the U.S.Census Bureau about 830,000 more Texas Latinos voted in 2018 than 2014. Now you have a demographic that is pissed and mobilizing, and they are going to take it out on somebody in the 2020 elections.

Again, Trump and the white supremacist are the greatest voter registration and get out to vote program the democrats could ever hope for.

re: Texas turning blue. No one ever thought California would flip deep, dark blue after the Reagan Revolution and all...but it sure did. Prop 187 was the tipping point.

Can't say for sure but a mass murder aimed at Latinos in Texas, and spurred on by Trump, could have a similar fate: wake up voters. People in El Paso don't want Trump to visit.

Also there's "Texodus", where the rats are fleeing the sinking ship.

I think Texas can be flipped. Won't be easy but if it does, GOP in big, big trouble.

If Texas flips, got to believe Florida will be blue as well. Those 2 alone would result in a massive landslide for the democrats but would be accompanied by swing states going blue (something like the map below) which is pretty hard to imagine with the polarization that we've seen in the post-Clinton era that largely disregards everything other than party for most voters.

If it does happen, I'm confident Trump and the GOP will claim massive fraud and seek to challenge the legitimacy of the results.





link to interactive map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/kLw8Z

Unit2Sucks said:

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If Texas flips, got to believe Florida will be blue as well. Those 2 alone would result in a massive landslide for the democrats but would be accompanied by swing states going blue (something like the map below) which is pretty hard to imagine with the polarization that we've seen in the post-Clinton era that largely disregards everything other than party for most voters.

If it does happen, I'm confident Trump and the GOP will claim massive fraud and seek to challenge the legitimacy of the results.





link to interactive map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/kLw8Z

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270 to win is a fun site to play around on. I could see that map, except with the rust belt going red (Georgia and North Carolina purple). A complete realignment between productive successful states and unproductive failed states. The failed states would still have the advantage in the Senate. What a way to run a country.

I have been as negative as anyone with regard to the chances of dethroning the Orange Tub of Guts in 2020...however, I am really starting to get a feeling in my gut that tRump over played his hand with the hate rhetoric and that the mass shootings may be what brings him down.... PROVIDED that mom and pop in the flyovers that hold the key to the Electoral College votes are fundamentally decent at their core. I think there is a good chance they are. The real danger is whether the power of the Fox News Propaganda Machine can override this by convincing them they are doing the right thing voting for tRump.

Unit2Sucks said:

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If Texas flips, got to believe Florida will be blue as well. Those 2 alone would result in a massive landslide for the democrats but would be accompanied by swing states going blue (something like the map below) which is pretty hard to imagine with the polarization that we've seen in the post-Clinton era that largely disregards everything other than party for most voters.

If it does happen, I'm confident Trump and the GOP will claim massive fraud and seek to challenge the legitimacy of the results.