2020 Election - Catch-all Thread

114,905 Views | 2225 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by bearister
Unit2Sucks
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Unit2Sucks said:

I think the discussions we have been having are now academic. If the country is able to successfully negotiate its way through the COVID19 outbreak, Trump skates to victory. If we have significant impacts (TBD on exactly what that means), Trump will be the scapegoat and Bernie will tout how M4A would have been better (Biden will point out that him not being an anti-science liar would have been better).

I think "success" will largely depend on how bad things get outside the country but I think anything in the neighborhood of 100k dead americans will be impossible for Trump to overcome. It would mean that our healthcare system was pushed far beyond the brink and potentially millions of Americans will have suffered catastrophic financial distress. The human impact plus the economic impact will be staggering. Anything less than 20k deaths will be a relief and Trump will rightfully tout how he navigated us through the worst public health crisis in the last 20 years. I hope that's what happens although it would mean 4 more years of Trump.


I said almost 5 months ago that the election would be decided based on how people feel about Trump's response to COVID and unsurprisingly and unfortunately we know how that has turned out.

Still possible that it just disappears like Cal88 says will happen in August but I think that it's too late at this point to lead Trump to victory.
bearister
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The states at the center of the 2020 voting crisis - Axios


https://www.axios.com/states-to-watch-2020-voting-6211b139-656d-432c-adc4-61d067121558.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
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Matthew Patel
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bearister said:

The states at the center of the 2020 voting crisis - Axios


https://www.axios.com/states-to-watch-2020-voting-6211b139-656d-432c-adc4-61d067121558.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
IMO, the worry about election fraud and lawsuits this year will be like Y2K. A bunch of hot air about nothing.
dajo9
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Matthew Patel said:

bearister said:

The states at the center of the 2020 voting crisis - Axios


https://www.axios.com/states-to-watch-2020-voting-6211b139-656d-432c-adc4-61d067121558.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
IMO, the worry about election fraud and lawsuits this year will be like Y2K. A bunch of hot air about nothing.


Y2K appeared to be nothing because numerous people worked very hard for you to have a seamless transition. For example, for a few months every weekend I flew with a team from Los Angeles to Milwaukee to do testing on new code. That was just one team from one minor financial firm.
An old white dude
Matthew Patel
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dajo9 said:

Matthew Patel said:

bearister said:

The states at the center of the 2020 voting crisis - Axios


https://www.axios.com/states-to-watch-2020-voting-6211b139-656d-432c-adc4-61d067121558.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
IMO, the worry about election fraud and lawsuits this year will be like Y2K. A bunch of hot air about nothing.
Y2K appeared to be nothing because numerous people worked very hard for you to have a seamless transition. For example, for a few months every weekend I flew with a team from Los Angeles to Milwaukee to do testing on new code. That was just one team from one minor financial firm.
I worked on Y2K stuff. It was easily solved. Don't try and make it sound more heroic than it was.
dajo9
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Matthew Patel said:

dajo9 said:

Matthew Patel said:

bearister said:

The states at the center of the 2020 voting crisis - Axios


https://www.axios.com/states-to-watch-2020-voting-6211b139-656d-432c-adc4-61d067121558.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
IMO, the worry about election fraud and lawsuits this year will be like Y2K. A bunch of hot air about nothing.
Y2K appeared to be nothing because numerous people worked very hard for you to have a seamless transition. For example, for a few months every weekend I flew with a team from Los Angeles to Milwaukee to do testing on new code. That was just one team from one minor financial firm.
I worked on Y2K stuff. It was easily solved. Don't try and make it sound more heroic than it was.
Different people did different things. I can tell you it had a major impact on my Fall / Winter 1999. I'm glad your experience was less impactful.
An old white dude
Matthew Patel
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dajo9 said:

Matthew Patel said:

dajo9 said:

Matthew Patel said:

bearister said:

The states at the center of the 2020 voting crisis - Axios


https://www.axios.com/states-to-watch-2020-voting-6211b139-656d-432c-adc4-61d067121558.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
IMO, the worry about election fraud and lawsuits this year will be like Y2K. A bunch of hot air about nothing.
Y2K appeared to be nothing because numerous people worked very hard for you to have a seamless transition. For example, for a few months every weekend I flew with a team from Los Angeles to Milwaukee to do testing on new code. That was just one team from one minor financial firm.
I worked on Y2K stuff. It was easily solved. Don't try and make it sound more heroic than it was.
Different people did different things. I can tell you it had a major impact on my Fall / Winter 1999. I'm glad your experience was less impactful.
It was work like any other. Not that complicated.
82gradDLSdad
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Matthew Patel said:

dajo9 said:

Matthew Patel said:

dajo9 said:

Matthew Patel said:

bearister said:

The states at the center of the 2020 voting crisis - Axios


https://www.axios.com/states-to-watch-2020-voting-6211b139-656d-432c-adc4-61d067121558.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
IMO, the worry about election fraud and lawsuits this year will be like Y2K. A bunch of hot air about nothing.
Y2K appeared to be nothing because numerous people worked very hard for you to have a seamless transition. For example, for a few months every weekend I flew with a team from Los Angeles to Milwaukee to do testing on new code. That was just one team from one minor financial firm.
I worked on Y2K stuff. It was easily solved. Don't try and make it sound more heroic than it was.
Different people did different things. I can tell you it had a major impact on my Fall / Winter 1999. I'm glad your experience was less impactful.
It was work like any other. Not that complicated.


Not complicated but vast. One more example, I was in IT at the phone company and there were many, many, many old Cobol and assembler programs that had to be edited and tested and converted so that no problems occurred. No one wanted those touched before and since. It's millions of lines of decades old code. Just work, I get it but it was VAST!
calbear93
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82gradDLSdad said:

Matthew Patel said:

dajo9 said:

Matthew Patel said:

dajo9 said:

Matthew Patel said:

bearister said:

The states at the center of the 2020 voting crisis - Axios


https://www.axios.com/states-to-watch-2020-voting-6211b139-656d-432c-adc4-61d067121558.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
IMO, the worry about election fraud and lawsuits this year will be like Y2K. A bunch of hot air about nothing.
Y2K appeared to be nothing because numerous people worked very hard for you to have a seamless transition. For example, for a few months every weekend I flew with a team from Los Angeles to Milwaukee to do testing on new code. That was just one team from one minor financial firm.
I worked on Y2K stuff. It was easily solved. Don't try and make it sound more heroic than it was.
Different people did different things. I can tell you it had a major impact on my Fall / Winter 1999. I'm glad your experience was less impactful.
It was work like any other. Not that complicated.


Not complicated but vast. One more example, I was in IT at the phone company and there were many, many, many old Cobol and assembler programs that had to be edited and tested and converted so that no problems occurred. No one wanted those touched before and since. It's millions of lines of decades old code. Just work, I get it but it was VAST!
Without understanding all of the background work that was being done, Y2K seemed like the biggest doomsday event that turned out not to be a doomsday event. I remember the apocalyptic risk factor I and my counterpart at the issuers' law firms drafted for each equity or bond offering we did during the late nineties. Reading those, some would wonder, why invest if the world is coming to an end.
Matthew Patel
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calbear93 said:

82gradDLSdad said:

Matthew Patel said:


It was work like any other. Not that complicated.


Not complicated but vast. One more example, I was in IT at the phone company and there were many, many, many old Cobol and assembler programs that had to be edited and tested and converted so that no problems occurred. No one wanted those touched before and since. It's millions of lines of decades old code. Just work, I get it but it was VAST!
Without understanding all of the background work that was being done, Y2K seemed like the biggest doomsday event that turned out not to be a doomsday event. I remember the apocalyptic risk factor I and my counterpart at the issuers' law firms drafted for each equity or bond offering we did during the late nineties. Reading those, some would wonder, why invest if the world is coming to an end.
The difference between Y2K and COVID-19 is that people planned ahead and did the work necessary to prepare. With COVID-19, we did this.

BearNIt
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Matthew Patel said:

bearister said:

The states at the center of the 2020 voting crisis - Axios


https://www.axios.com/states-to-watch-2020-voting-6211b139-656d-432c-adc4-61d067121558.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
IMO, the worry about election fraud and lawsuits this year will be like Y2K. A bunch of hot air about nothing.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. This has always been the mantra in healthcare and especially in Emergency Medicine that way if it is bad you at least have a chance and can make adjustments when needed.
calbear93
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Matthew Patel said:

calbear93 said:

82gradDLSdad said:

Matthew Patel said:


It was work like any other. Not that complicated.


Not complicated but vast. One more example, I was in IT at the phone company and there were many, many, many old Cobol and assembler programs that had to be edited and tested and converted so that no problems occurred. No one wanted those touched before and since. It's millions of lines of decades old code. Just work, I get it but it was VAST!
Without understanding all of the background work that was being done, Y2K seemed like the biggest doomsday event that turned out not to be a doomsday event. I remember the apocalyptic risk factor I and my counterpart at the issuers' law firms drafted for each equity or bond offering we did during the late nineties. Reading those, some would wonder, why invest if the world is coming to an end.
The difference between Y2K and COVID-19 is that people planned ahead and did the work necessary to prepare. With COVID-19, we did this.


Well, with Y2K, people were talking about it for 2 years, and it was not some novel coronavirus that we are still trying to figure out.

Besides, I was not comparing Y2K with COVID-19. I was just pointing out that the doom and gloom predicted for over 2 years before 2000 turned out to be a non-event, even if avoided due to mass correction of codes that only took into account the last two digits of the calendar year.
bearister
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File this article for a reexamination if tRump "wins" the Election.

Nance: Trump Camp Will Likely Hack Democrat Party If Russia Doesn't


https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/07/25/msnbcs-malcolm-nance-trump-campaign-will-likely-hack-democrat-party-if-russia-doesnt/
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Matthew Patel
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bearister said:

File this article for a reexamination if tRump "wins" the Election.

Nance: Trump Camp Will Likely Hack Democrat Party If Russia Doesn't


https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/07/25/msnbcs-malcolm-nance-trump-campaign-will-likely-hack-democrat-party-if-russia-doesnt/
Maybe the Democratic Party should consider spending some money on some decent security.
bearister
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Biden's path to the White House could hit a dead end on Facebook


https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jul/26/bidens-path-to-the-white-house-could-hit-a-dead-end-on-facebook?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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bearister
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Wake up America!



https://apple.news/ABJSKd8cCSTKI2-IYa1DYOA
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BearNIt
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The Reagan Foundation has told Captain Catastrophe and the Republican National Committee to stop using Reagan's name and likeness to raise money. That's a win for the Gipper.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/reagan-foundation-asks-trump-campaign-and-rnc-joint-fundraising-committee-to-stop-using-reagans-likeness-in-fundraising-pitch/ar-BB17duxE
82gradDLSdad
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BearNIt said:

The Reagan Foundation has told Captain Catastrophe and the Republican National Committee to stop using Reagan's name and likeness to raise money. That's a win for the Gipper.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/reagan-foundation-asks-trump-campaign-and-rnc-joint-fundraising-committee-to-stop-using-reagans-likeness-in-fundraising-pitch/ar-BB17duxE



It's bad when dead people are jumping off the ship.
bearister
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The 25th Amendment or dropping like a diseased manatee from Covid 19 may be the only options:

Michigan swing voters in focus group question Biden's ability to lead - Axios


https://www.axios.com/focus-group-michigan-swing-voters-biden-789ca686-6910-464e-9126-450afa5a5882.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

Conservative TV networks backtrack after touting Qanon, Plandemic conspiracies - Axios


https://www.axios.com/conservative-tv-networks-tout-conspiracies-db3ed30c-1292-46ec-870f-cdc3be95cc50.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

*In the end, a nation ends up with the government it deserves.
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GoOskie
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bearister said:

Michigan swing voters in focus group question Biden's ability to lead - Axios
Some people are just lost causes. The morbidly obese stain in the WH couldn't lead a group of male teens into a Hooters bar.
“If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed … and we will deserve it”
sycasey
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GoOskie said:

bearister said:

Michigan swing voters in focus group question Biden's ability to lead - Axios
Some people are just lost causes. The morbidly obese stain in the WH couldn't lead a group of male teens into a Hooters bar.
I question if these people are really swing voters this cycle, given that Biden has been leading in Michigan by about 9 points.
bearister
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sycasey
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bearister said:


And by the way, the "undecided" vote swung the other way in the last election, which allowed Trump to win.
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bearister
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" Fellow Americans, I know I am a disruptor, and everyone knows I thrive on conflict. I believe that disruption is what Republicans and the country needed when I ran for president in 2016, and that is what I delivered. But I realize the pandemic creates a whole new agenda. I am going to devote the balance of my term to trying to get this country opened up safely, and allow someone without my sharp edges make the case for Republicans this fall."

Why Trump Might Quit - POLITICO


https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/07/30/why-trump-might-quit-387681



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Big C
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I wouldn't be AT ALL surprised if Trump didn't make it to January 20th, one way or another.
bearister
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Big C said:


I wouldn't be AT ALL surprised if Trump didn't make it to January 20th, one way or another.


I agree. As Don Johnson said on Eastbound and Down: "He looks like 10 pounds of sh@it in a 5 pound bag."

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bearister
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The Biden Campaign has just hired Graham Ivan Clark as a Special Technical Consultant to the campaign.
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OaktownBear
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sycasey said:

GoOskie said:

bearister said:

Michigan swing voters in focus group question Biden's ability to lead - Axios
Some people are just lost causes. The morbidly obese stain in the WH couldn't lead a group of male teens into a Hooters bar.
I question if these people are really swing voters this cycle, given that Biden has been leading in Michigan by about 9 points.


Yes, I saw a guy who leads focus groups in Wisconsin raise the red flag because with a tiny sample size, he found that 2/3 of "swing voters" were going for Trump. Definition of swing voters was people who voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016. In other words, 100% of his focus group voted for Trump last time. Getting 1/3 of that group is pretty good. He fails to see if all else stayed the same in Wisconsin and Biden got 1/3 the Obama Trump vote, Biden wins easily.
Matthew Patel
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OaktownBear said:

sycasey said:

GoOskie said:

bearister said:

Michigan swing voters in focus group question Biden's ability to lead - Axios
Some people are just lost causes. The morbidly obese stain in the WH couldn't lead a group of male teens into a Hooters bar.
I question if these people are really swing voters this cycle, given that Biden has been leading in Michigan by about 9 points.
Yes, I saw a guy who leads focus groups in Wisconsin raise the red flag because with a tiny sample size, he found that 2/3 of "swing voters" were going for Trump. Definition of swing voters was people who voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016. In other words, 100% of his focus group voted for Trump last time. Getting 1/3 of that group is pretty good. He fails to see if all else stayed the same in Wisconsin and Biden got 1/3 the Obama Trump vote, Biden wins easily.
The hilarious thing is that if he hadn't mismanaged coronavirus so badly, he probably would have won easily. The country finally really needed him to do something that would have materially changed their lives and he blew it completely.

Mario Cuomo showed us how little the credulous rubes that make up the voting population require of their leaders in a crisis. Be visible and act as though you're taking things very seriously and people literally will forget how slow you were to close things down and that you literally killed off 6,200 people in nursing homes because of your bad policy. It would have been absurdly easy to do. But his hubris got in the way and now he's going to lose to somebody with zero appeal, zero platform, and zero leadership.

This is going to be a classic case of winning the battle to lose the war just like in 2008. Democrats will likely control House of Representatives, Senate, and President, fail to get the economy back on track due to their lack of interest in the welfare of anyone outside their voter class, Biden will make himself look like an idiot, and they will lose all of their 2020 gains in 2022. And that was WITH a guy who had gravitas, a guy who made you feel like he knew what he was doing, and all the same cabinet members Biden is going to have.

Same shyt, different year.
bearister
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...but Bernie would have crushed it.
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bearister
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" Large elements of the Republican party have made a collective decision that there is no objective truth" and that a cause or simple access to power is more important.

Rather than saying the sky is green, the new strategy is "to build a world in which the sky is in fact green. Then everyone who says it is blue is clearly a liar." Sadly, it has worked. Stevens notes that once "there is no challenge to the craziest of ideas that have no basis in fact, it is easy for Trump to take one small bit of truth and spin it into an elaborate fantasy."

It Was All a Lie review: Trump as symptom not cause of Republican decline


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/02/it-was-all-a-lie-review-trump-republican-party?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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NYCGOBEARS
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bearister said:

" Large elements of the Republican party have made a collective decision that there is no objective truth" and that a cause or simple access to power is more important.

Rather than saying the sky is green, the new strategy is "to build a world in which the sky is in fact green. Then everyone who says it is blue is clearly a liar." Sadly, it has worked. Stevens notes that once "there is no challenge to the craziest of ideas that have no basis in fact, it is easy for Trump to take one small bit of truth and spin it into an elaborate fantasy."

It Was All a Lie review: Trump as symptom not cause of Republican decline


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/02/it-was-all-a-lie-review-trump-republican-party?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Can't wait to read this book.
smh
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bearister said:

Why Trump Might Quit - POLITICO
booth. been there done that..
https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/96812/replies/1778795
muting ~60 handles as of june 2020, turnaround is fair play
go bears lets beat the covids; fascists suck BigTime (tnx blue)
i forget the rest of the rest
 
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