2020 Election - Catch-all Thread

58,915 Views | 1686 Replies | Last: 5 days ago by Professor Turgeson Bear
golden sloth
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I agree the election is going to be close and ugly, but if you go back to the morning consult link you can see trump's approval over time. It is clear that his approval in many states is much lower than january after the election.
OaktownBear
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golden sloth said:

I agree the election is going to be close and ugly, but if you go back to the morning consult link you can see trump's approval over time. It is clear that his approval in many states is much lower than january after the election.
His approval in January after the election was much higher than on election day. Trump got a honeymoon like most presidents. Then he ordered the Muslim ban and moderates who were hoping he was just going to be a normal Republican left swiftly.
bearister
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The only approval tRump has to worry about is Putin's. Russian hackers and compromised voting machines in the key Electoral College flyover states will take care of the rest.
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concordtom
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bearister said:

The only approval tRump has to worry about is Putin's. Russian hackers and compromised voting machines in the key Electoral College flyover states will take care of the rest.


You've said this theory multiple times. I have the same fear. But there's been no evidence of it that I've heard of.

Can you provide anything to move it from conspiracy theory status?
concordtom
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Despite the fact that the Trump White House record saying he did mention Biden....

In a poll released Tuesday by Monmouth University, just four in 10 self-identified Republicans said they believe that President Donald Trump discussed political rival former Vice President Joe Biden during his phone call with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky on July 25.
bearup
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concordtom said:

Despite the fact that the Trump White House record saying he did mention Biden....

In a poll released Tuesday by Monmouth University, just four in 10 self-identified Republicans said they believe that President Donald Trump discussed political rival former Vice President Joe Biden during his phone call with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky on July 25.
The 40% or thereabouts is sadly familiar.
Being a Cal fan: You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave
concordtom
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True.
I'm on FB with various family members who fugking wack job ignorant partisans.
Another Bear
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This is guy is running against Gym Jordan. He's a ex-GOP official and farmer. Voted for Trump, won't vote for him again. Gym might go back to sniffing jock strap and shower viewing.




Professor Turgeson Bear
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golden sloth said:

Buttigieg appears to be making a serious run at Iowa. The latest poll has him in the lead by 9 points, and he is leading in the last two Iowa polls taken.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

Also, of note Klobuchar may be pulling ahead of the non-big 4 candidates as the moderates may be starting to chime in.
It isn't just white Trump supporters who pretend to be black:
concordtom
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Just listened to these 2 hours of debate by 10 candidates from (I think) 2 nights ago.
Bagged 16 55 gallons trash bags of yard waste while doing so. Whew!

OaktownBear
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Professor Turgeson Bear said:

golden sloth said:

Buttigieg appears to be making a serious run at Iowa. The latest poll has him in the lead by 9 points, and he is leading in the last two Iowa polls taken.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

Also, of note Klobuchar may be pulling ahead of the non-big 4 candidates as the moderates may be starting to chime in.
It isn't just white Trump supporters who pretend to be black:

I don't know why the media isn't touching the Buttigieg story, but the reason why the candidates won't is they have no incentive to. Blacks already know. He will be lucky to get 2% of the Black vote in any state.

If the Democrats nominate Buttigieg, they can pretty much start rounding up candidates for 2024 because it will be an easy task for the Republicans to convince enough Blacks to stay home to swing 2020 their way. His record in South Bend was already bad enough before this. Not that I'm worried because there is no way he gets the nomination.
Professor Turgeson Bear
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OaktownBear said:

Professor Turgeson Bear said:

golden sloth said:

Buttigieg appears to be making a serious run at Iowa. The latest poll has him in the lead by 9 points, and he is leading in the last two Iowa polls taken.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

Also, of note Klobuchar may be pulling ahead of the non-big 4 candidates as the moderates may be starting to chime in.
It isn't just white Trump supporters who pretend to be black:

I don't know why the media isn't touching the Buttigieg story, but the reason why the candidates won't is they have no incentive to. Blacks already know. He will be lucky to get 2% of the Black vote in any state.

If the Democrats nominate Buttigieg, they can pretty much start rounding up candidates for 2024 because it will be an easy task for the Republicans to convince enough Blacks to stay home to swing 2020 their way. His record in South Bend was already bad enough before this. Not that I'm worried because there is no way he gets the nomination.
He's the current moderate that they love, despite the fact that he's never given anybody a tangible reason to love him other than people who worship at the cult of personality. After Obama, I expect more from my candidate than being someone who sounds good. I want something substantial that is part of their platform.

All these people who keep complaining that the field is weak are kinda missing the point. The field isn't unusually weak, it's just very crowded. We need a bunch of people polling at under 10% to drop out before the other constituencies can grow.
sycasey
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Professor Turgeson Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

Professor Turgeson Bear said:

golden sloth said:

Buttigieg appears to be making a serious run at Iowa. The latest poll has him in the lead by 9 points, and he is leading in the last two Iowa polls taken.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

Also, of note Klobuchar may be pulling ahead of the non-big 4 candidates as the moderates may be starting to chime in.
It isn't just white Trump supporters who pretend to be black:

I don't know why the media isn't touching the Buttigieg story, but the reason why the candidates won't is they have no incentive to. Blacks already know. He will be lucky to get 2% of the Black vote in any state.

If the Democrats nominate Buttigieg, they can pretty much start rounding up candidates for 2024 because it will be an easy task for the Republicans to convince enough Blacks to stay home to swing 2020 their way. His record in South Bend was already bad enough before this. Not that I'm worried because there is no way he gets the nomination.
He's the current moderate that they love, despite the fact that he's never given anybody a tangible reason to love him other than people who worship at the cult of personality. After Obama, I expect more from my candidate than being someone who sounds good. I want something substantial that is part of their platform.

All these people who keep complaining that the field is weak are kinda missing the point. The field isn't unusually weak, it's just very crowded. We need a bunch of people polling at under 10% to drop out before the other constituencies can grow.

Polling of Democrats generally shows they are happy with their choices. That's why Deval Patrick had two people show up at his announcement. No one except some wealthy donors are clamoring for better candidates. I think your last point here is right.
concordtom
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At the debate the other night, Amy Klobuchar was the only candidate who made a statement about the deficit - or at least, one that I recall, the strongest, the longest and most specific. Of the 10, I'm voting for her.
golden sloth
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Professor Turgeson Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

Professor Turgeson Bear said:

golden sloth said:

Buttigieg appears to be making a serious run at Iowa. The latest poll has him in the lead by 9 points, and he is leading in the last two Iowa polls taken.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

Also, of note Klobuchar may be pulling ahead of the non-big 4 candidates as the moderates may be starting to chime in.
It isn't just white Trump supporters who pretend to be black:

I don't know why the media isn't touching the Buttigieg story, but the reason why the candidates won't is they have no incentive to. Blacks already know. He will be lucky to get 2% of the Black vote in any state.

If the Democrats nominate Buttigieg, they can pretty much start rounding up candidates for 2024 because it will be an easy task for the Republicans to convince enough Blacks to stay home to swing 2020 their way. His record in South Bend was already bad enough before this. Not that I'm worried because there is no way he gets the nomination.
He's the current moderate that they love, despite the fact that he's never given anybody a tangible reason to love him other than people who worship at the cult of personality. After Obama, I expect more from my candidate than being someone who sounds good. I want something substantial that is part of their platform.

All these people who keep complaining that the field is weak are kinda missing the point. The field isn't unusually weak, it's just very crowded. We need a bunch of people polling at under 10% to drop out before the other constituencies can grow.
Honestly, he is one of the candidates I am considering supporting as (I've narrowed it down to about 4), and one of the main reasons why he drew my interest early in the process was his focus on structural reform to the governmental system to ensure a more representative system rather than the massive conservative bias it has right now. That meant depoliticizing the Supreme court, adding DC and Puerto Rico as states to balance the Senate, pushing for a national standard in voting rights, getting rid of the Electoral college and making election day a National holiday I agreed with his blurb that the country is currently on the.trajectory to be under minority rule, and all the other issues like Universal Healthcare, Climate Change, Economic Inequality cannot be properly addressed until the root cause of disproportionate minority rule is addressed.

As he became a more serious contender he quieted his rhetoric.

I'd also reiterate that I would support any of the Dem candidates over Trump, and the only person I'd pause on would be Tulsi Gabbard (which, who in her campaign thought she should embrace the Cruella DeVille look with her hair?).

Finally, I really don't like The Hill as a source of information, they are the left wing equivalent of Fox news in my opinion (but not as bad).
dajo9
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golden sloth said:

Professor Turgeson Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

Professor Turgeson Bear said:

golden sloth said:

Buttigieg appears to be making a serious run at Iowa. The latest poll has him in the lead by 9 points, and he is leading in the last two Iowa polls taken.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

Also, of note Klobuchar may be pulling ahead of the non-big 4 candidates as the moderates may be starting to chime in.
It isn't just white Trump supporters who pretend to be black:

I don't know why the media isn't touching the Buttigieg story, but the reason why the candidates won't is they have no incentive to. Blacks already know. He will be lucky to get 2% of the Black vote in any state.

If the Democrats nominate Buttigieg, they can pretty much start rounding up candidates for 2024 because it will be an easy task for the Republicans to convince enough Blacks to stay home to swing 2020 their way. His record in South Bend was already bad enough before this. Not that I'm worried because there is no way he gets the nomination.
He's the current moderate that they love, despite the fact that he's never given anybody a tangible reason to love him other than people who worship at the cult of personality. After Obama, I expect more from my candidate than being someone who sounds good. I want something substantial that is part of their platform.

All these people who keep complaining that the field is weak are kinda missing the point. The field isn't unusually weak, it's just very crowded. We need a bunch of people polling at under 10% to drop out before the other constituencies can grow.
Honestly, he is one of the candidates I am considering supporting as (I've narrowed it down to about 4), and one of the main reasons why he drew my interest early in the process was his focus on structural reform to the governmental system to ensure a more representative system rather than the massive conservative bias it has right now. That meant depoliticizing the Supreme court, adding DC and Puerto Rico as states to balance the Senate, pushing for a national standard in voting rights, getting rid of the Electoral college and making election day a National holiday I agreed with his blurb that the country is currently on the.trajectory to be under minority rule, and all the other issues like Universal Healthcare, Climate Change, Economic Inequality cannot be properly addressed until the root cause of disproportionate minority rule is addressed.

As he became a more serious contender he quieted his rhetoric.

I'd also reiterate that I would support any of the Dem candidates over Trump, and the only person I'd pause on would be Tulsi Gabbard (which, who in her campaign thought she should embrace the Cruella DeVille look with her hair?).

Finally, I really don't like The Hill as a source of information, they are the left wing equivalent of Fox news in my opinion (but not as bad).


You must not know about John Solomon
An old white dude
OaktownBear
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Professor Turgeson Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

Professor Turgeson Bear said:

golden sloth said:

Buttigieg appears to be making a serious run at Iowa. The latest poll has him in the lead by 9 points, and he is leading in the last two Iowa polls taken.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

Also, of note Klobuchar may be pulling ahead of the non-big 4 candidates as the moderates may be starting to chime in.
It isn't just white Trump supporters who pretend to be black:

I don't know why the media isn't touching the Buttigieg story, but the reason why the candidates won't is they have no incentive to. Blacks already know. He will be lucky to get 2% of the Black vote in any state.

If the Democrats nominate Buttigieg, they can pretty much start rounding up candidates for 2024 because it will be an easy task for the Republicans to convince enough Blacks to stay home to swing 2020 their way. His record in South Bend was already bad enough before this. Not that I'm worried because there is no way he gets the nomination.
He's the current moderate that they love, despite the fact that he's never given anybody a tangible reason to love him other than people who worship at the cult of personality. After Obama, I expect more from my candidate than being someone who sounds good. I want something substantial that is part of their platform.

All these people who keep complaining that the field is weak are kinda missing the point. The field isn't unusually weak, it's just very crowded. We need a bunch of people polling at under 10% to drop out before the other constituencies can grow.


My opinion of Buttigieg is he just speaks in vague generalities. There is no substance.

As for candidates going after him, think about it. Pete is not the threat to Biden people make him out to be. Biden would love to win Iowa and New Hampshire, but above all he'd like Warren to lose them. Demographics are not in his favor in those two states. Biden wants to split the educated White vote. Bernie and Warren probably feel they want to split the moderate vote.

I think if you are the Biden camp, other than winning in Iowa and/or New Hampshire, your ideal is for Pete to win those and then get clobbered in Nevada and South Carolina. Go into Super Tuesday with Warren critically wounded and Bernie the protest candidate.

The one who should be going after Pete hard is Klobuchar who needs to take him down to get in the race.
Professor Turgeson Bear
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OaktownBear said:


The one who should be going after Pete hard is Klobuchar who needs to take him down to get in the race.
As long as Biden is in the race (and I don't see why he won't be in for a long time), I don't see a way for her to grow her constituency significantly.
B.A. Bearacus
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Insight into tv ad buy costs in the LA market.

Anarchistbear
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I'm looking forward to the Bloomberg media empire's impartial coverage of the campaign.
bearister
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Just how awesome is Cicely Strong? One of the few good impressionists on SNL. Also a fine actress they have anchor most skits.



....and speaking of SNL, many say this was the best live performance by a musical guest All Time:

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Anarchistbear
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Zuckerberg had a private dinner at the White House with Trump in October. Our media oligarchs are ready to do battle.
AunBear89
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Best live performance on SNL? Maybe...

This one was also pretty good:
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
concordtom
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B.A. Bearacus said:

Insight into tv ad buy costs in the LA market.



Good post.

Dude seriously needs to be doing interviews and traveling to public stage talks. Where the F has he been???
TV alone ain't gonna come even close to cutting it.
golden sloth
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This performance was hilarious.

B.A. Bearacus
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Anarchistbear
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You know what would really be preferable to Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden or Trump- Bill Kristol swinging from a tree.
sycasey
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golden sloth said:

This performance was hilarious.


Wow, I remember this one. It does seem like this was salvageable, just say your backing track went wrong and restart the song. The audience will forgive something like this.

My favorite part is how the band just keeps on playing. Like, we're on SNL and we're gonna get our screen time dammit.
B.A. Bearacus
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Anarchistbear said:

You know what would really be preferable to Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden or Trump- Bill Kristol swinging from a tree.
Feel like I'm missing out on all the rhetorical fun. Let's do this: for every anarchist wish fulfillment of an execution or mass murder of an American political figure or commentator an equivalent number of anarchists are immediately taken from this earth.
bearister
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AunBear89 said:

Best live performance on SNL? Maybe...

This one was also pretty good:



Yes, David Byrne stuck the landing there! Two more good SNL performances:



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sycasey
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Not the live performance, but I'm blown away by how good the rehearsal sounds here. That band was really tight.

golden sloth
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I'm curious. When do you think the rest of the Democratic field drops out. There are still 18 candidates and several of them have done nothing and are not talked about. I'd imagine there are three waves of drop outs. One this December for people that aren't ever talked about like Bennet, Sestak and Williamson, then a second after the New Hampshire and South Carolina for fringe 1% or 2% like Klobuchar and Gabbard, and the final cut after the Super Tuesday for whoever isn't in good shape.
Professor Turgeson Bear
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golden sloth said:

I'm curious. When do you think the rest of the Democratic field drops out.
Like most things political, when they realize nobody is going to give them money. By no later than the beginning of March, a lot of people are going to be gone.
B.A. Bearacus
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Kamala out.

sycasey
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When Harris' own campaign staffers started complaining to the press, the writing was on the wall for her.
 
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