Unit2Sucks said:

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The fundamentals are what they are. Just like pre-COVID favoring Trump's re-election, the current environment is extremely favorable to Biden. He ended our forever war, brought the troops home and the economy is humming. The recession thr GOP wanted never came and doesn't look to be coming in 2024.

Absent some deus ex machina, Biden will win.

The GOP knows it which is why 100% of their focus is on finding some external influence. Trump is a loser and will lose again absent a miracle. He can't be rehabilitated or improved. The GOP is starting to figure out that Hunter isn't that miracle.

The funny thing is going to be Trump trying to run again in 2028 and salting the land for anyone else who tries. He will be a noose around the neck of the GOP compounding failure upon failure until he croaks.

---

What do you make of most of the recent polling showing Biden in a not-so-great position? Yes, granted the election is 11 months away, but other presidents who have been reelected have generally been stronger at this point in the cycle.

sycasey said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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The fundamentals are what they are. Just like pre-COVID favoring Trump's re-election, the current environment is extremely favorable to Biden. He ended our forever war, brought the troops home and the economy is humming. The recession thr GOP wanted never came and doesn't look to be coming in 2024.

Absent some deus ex machina, Biden will win.

The GOP knows it which is why 100% of their focus is on finding some external influence. Trump is a loser and will lose again absent a miracle. He can't be rehabilitated or improved. The GOP is starting to figure out that Hunter isn't that miracle.

The funny thing is going to be Trump trying to run again in 2028 and salting the land for anyone else who tries. He will be a noose around the neck of the GOP compounding failure upon failure until he croaks.

---

What do you make of most of the recent polling showing Biden in a not-so-great position? Yes, granted the election is 11 months away, but other presidents who have been reelected have generally been stronger at this point in the cycle.

---

Unless Trump dies, I don't make much of the polls. If Trump is his opponent, Biden will be fine because so many people hate Trump. I'm assuming of course that there are no substantial election shenanigans / irregularities like GOP violating the voting rights act, de-registering voters, preventing mail-in ballot and early voting, etc.

If Trump somehow is alive but not the nominee, Biden will do great because Trump will relentlessly trash whichever GOPer ends up with the nomination. Remember that above all else, Trump is a malignant narcissist. The worst case scenario for him is having Ron D or Nikki win the election so he will use every dirty trick he has to prevent them from doing so. We're already seeing him roll out his dirty strategy against Nikki and will see more in the coming weeks.

The polls now reflect the fact that the media has done everything they can to generate a horse race in 2024. Every article asks why reduced inflation might be bad for Biden. The media refuses to cover the soft landing (although they had breathless articles for over a year on how the Fed fighting inflation would crater the economy).

The fundamentals are strong and eventually sentiment will catch up. Once Trump actually starts campaigning against Biden, people will remember how bad he was and the polls will turn. I'm not too worried about it. Worst-case scenario, Trump wins and the loser left-wing extremists will celebrate for a day before realizing how much worse off they will be under Trump.

I do think there is something to the fact that Trump has been out of the spotlight for a while, which might mean that more casual voters don't even realize he's going to be the nominee again.

sycasey said:

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I do think there is something to the fact that Trump has been out of the spotlight for a while, which might mean that more casual voters don't even realize he's going to be the nominee again.

---

People who don't know that he will be a nominee again is a hermit who should not be voting. He doesn't need to debate because there is nothing for him to gain when all the candidates are so tepid about attacking him.

The fact that other Republican candidates are not getting behind Haley and going after Trump means that the Republicans deserve to lose.

sycasey said:

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I do think there is something to the fact that Trump has been out of the spotlight for a while, which might mean that more casual voters don't even realize he's going to be the nominee again.

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Your stupidity truly astounds. Maybe casual voters might not realize it if the Democrats weren't putting him in the news every single day.

calbear93 said:

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sycasey said:

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I do think there is something to the fact that Trump has been out of the spotlight for a while, which might mean that more casual voters don't even realize he's going to be the nominee again.

---

People who don't know that he will be a nominee again is a hermit who should not be voting.

---

A lot of people really don't even think about the upcoming Presidential election until like the last month before it happens. The people who do have probably mostly made up their minds already.

sycasey said:

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calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

I do think there is something to the fact that Trump has been out of the spotlight for a while, which might mean that more casual voters don't even realize he's going to be the nominee again.

---

People who don't know that he will be a nominee again is a hermit who should not be voting.

---

A lot of people really don't even think about the upcoming Presidential election until like the last month before it happens. The people who do have probably mostly made up their minds already.

---

But Trump coverage is everywhere, because America is obsessed with Trump. There isn't a voter so casual that he does not know Trump is running. And if he is that casual, he won't bother to vote.

But agree that Trump voters have made up their minds, and anti-Trump voters have made up their minds as well.

It's independent voters like me who will still decide, but I think when it comes down to choosing between two **** candidates, the candidate who is not quoting Hitler will have to win out.

calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

I do think there is something to the fact that Trump has been out of the spotlight for a while, which might mean that more casual voters don't even realize he's going to be the nominee again.

---

People who don't know that he will be a nominee again is a hermit who should not be voting.

---

A lot of people really don't even think about the upcoming Presidential election until like the last month before it happens. The people who do have probably mostly made up their minds already.

---

But Trump coverage is everywhere, because America is obsessed with Trump. There isn't a voter so casual that he does not know Trump is running. And if he is that casual, he won't bother to vote.

But agree that Trump voters have made up their minds, and anti-Trump voters have made up their minds as well.

It's independent voters like me who will still decide, but I think when it comes down to choosing between two **** candidates, the candidate who is not quoting Hitler will have to win out.

---

Eh, I'm not sure that's true at the level that moves elections. Right now the only primary happening is on the GOP side and it's been bloodless for Trump. If anything, the sycophants running for VP have done more to prop him up than they have to hurt him.

The general election will not be so kind to Trump. The vast majority of democratic spending will be in the last quarter leading up to the election - and it will exceed $1B (as it did in 2020). It will be quite easy for Biden to paint a contrast with Trump. All Trump will have to offer, once again, is Hunter Biden.

An interesting question is whether abortion initiatives will be on the ballot in any swing states in 2024. Groups in Arizona and Nevada are working hard to put it on the ballot and both states would be must-wins for Trump. If abortion is on the ballot, that could just add to Biden's margin from 2020.

Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

I do think there is something to the fact that Trump has been out of the spotlight for a while, which might mean that more casual voters don't even realize he's going to be the nominee again.

---

People who don't know that he will be a nominee again is a hermit who should not be voting.

---

A lot of people really don't even think about the upcoming Presidential election until like the last month before it happens. The people who do have probably mostly made up their minds already.

---

But Trump coverage is everywhere, because America is obsessed with Trump. There isn't a voter so casual that he does not know Trump is running. And if he is that casual, he won't bother to vote.

But agree that Trump voters have made up their minds, and anti-Trump voters have made up their minds as well.

It's independent voters like me who will still decide, but I think when it comes down to choosing between two **** candidates, the candidate who is not quoting Hitler will have to win out.

---

Eh, I'm not sure that's true at the level that moves elections. Right now the only primary happening is on the GOP side and it's been bloodless for Trump. If anything, the sycophants running for VP have done more to prop him up than they have to hurt him.

The general election will not be so kind to Trump. The vast majority of democratic spending will be in the last quarter leading up to the election - and it will exceed $1B (as it did in 2020). It will be quite easy for Biden to paint a contrast with Trump. All Trump will have to offer, once again, is Hunter Biden.

An interesting question is whether abortion initiatives will be on the ballot in any swing states in 2024. Groups in Arizona and Nevada are working hard to put it on the ballot and both states would be must-wins for Trump. If abortion is on the ballot, that could just add to Biden's margin from 2020.

---

I think you are more optimistic on the benefit of Democratic spending.

The constant problem with Trump is that he has embraced and flaunted what should be damning faults, and that has made him more popular with the MAGA crowd. The people who were never going to vote for Trump will need no further convinving.

This will come down to how unpopular Biden is in the swing states, especially the Rust Belt. Mudslinging against Trump when there isn't that much more one could say about Trump that has not already been said may not be that effective.

What I would hope Biden does is present a moderate platform, distance himself from the more progressive stance, and make a pitch that will be compelling to the middle class in the Rust Belt. Without that, people have become so desensitized to Trump that mudslinging will not be effective.

calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

I do think there is something to the fact that Trump has been out of the spotlight for a while, which might mean that more casual voters don't even realize he's going to be the nominee again.

---

People who don't know that he will be a nominee again is a hermit who should not be voting.

---

A lot of people really don't even think about the upcoming Presidential election until like the last month before it happens. The people who do have probably mostly made up their minds already.

---

But Trump coverage is everywhere, because America is obsessed with Trump. There isn't a voter so casual that he does not know Trump is running. And if he is that casual, he won't bother to vote.

But agree that Trump voters have made up their minds, and anti-Trump voters have made up their minds as well.

It's independent voters like me who will still decide, but I think when it comes down to choosing between two **** candidates, the candidate who is not quoting Hitler will have to win out.

---

Eh, I'm not sure that's true at the level that moves elections. Right now the only primary happening is on the GOP side and it's been bloodless for Trump. If anything, the sycophants running for VP have done more to prop him up than they have to hurt him.

The general election will not be so kind to Trump. The vast majority of democratic spending will be in the last quarter leading up to the election - and it will exceed $1B (as it did in 2020). It will be quite easy for Biden to paint a contrast with Trump. All Trump will have to offer, once again, is Hunter Biden.

An interesting question is whether abortion initiatives will be on the ballot in any swing states in 2024. Groups in Arizona and Nevada are working hard to put it on the ballot and both states would be must-wins for Trump. If abortion is on the ballot, that could just add to Biden's margin from 2020.

---

I think you are more optimistic on the benefit of Democratic spending.

The constant problem with Trump is that he has embraced and flaunted what should be damning faults, and that has made him more popular with the MAGA crowd. The people who were never going to vote for Trump will need no further convinving.

This will come down to how unpopular Biden is in the swing states, especially the Rust Belt. Mudslinging against Trump when there isn't that much more one could say about Trump that has not already been said may not be that effective.

What I would hope Biden does is present a moderate platform, distance himself from the more progressive stance, and make a pitch that will be compelling to the middle class in the Rust Belt. Without that, people have become so desensitized to Trump that mudslinging will not be effective.

---

Spending moves the needle, there isn't any question in my mind about that. Money isn't enough to win (see Trump in 2020) but it certainly has an impact. Right now, money hasn't entered the picture at all - we haven't seen any ads from any candidates (at least not in any meaningful numbers).

As for the MAGAts, everyone understands they will vote for Trump, but there aren't enough of them. As we saw in 2020, it doesn't matter how much the deplorables love Trump, they need people like you and independents to win. And those people still don't like Trump and nothing Biden has done or will do will change that.

I'm not sure what you are looking for in terms of a moderate platform from Biden. He's done what he said he would do. He passed bipartisan legislation. He governed from the middle. He's been under constant attack from progressives for not being progressive enough. That is a bit part of why his polling is so low - a lot of those people disapprove of Biden and think that somehow their tantrums will win them some progressive prize. The prize for progressives abandoning Biden is Trump and chaos. It's not free student loans, health care, UBI or anything else on their wishlist. It's not freedom for Palestine. Most will eventually realize it.

Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

I do think there is something to the fact that Trump has been out of the spotlight for a while, which might mean that more casual voters don't even realize he's going to be the nominee again.

---

People who don't know that he will be a nominee again is a hermit who should not be voting.

---

A lot of people really don't even think about the upcoming Presidential election until like the last month before it happens. The people who do have probably mostly made up their minds already.

---

But Trump coverage is everywhere, because America is obsessed with Trump. There isn't a voter so casual that he does not know Trump is running. And if he is that casual, he won't bother to vote.

But agree that Trump voters have made up their minds, and anti-Trump voters have made up their minds as well.

It's independent voters like me who will still decide, but I think when it comes down to choosing between two **** candidates, the candidate who is not quoting Hitler will have to win out.

---

Eh, I'm not sure that's true at the level that moves elections. Right now the only primary happening is on the GOP side and it's been bloodless for Trump. If anything, the sycophants running for VP have done more to prop him up than they have to hurt him.

The general election will not be so kind to Trump. The vast majority of democratic spending will be in the last quarter leading up to the election - and it will exceed $1B (as it did in 2020). It will be quite easy for Biden to paint a contrast with Trump. All Trump will have to offer, once again, is Hunter Biden.

An interesting question is whether abortion initiatives will be on the ballot in any swing states in 2024. Groups in Arizona and Nevada are working hard to put it on the ballot and both states would be must-wins for Trump. If abortion is on the ballot, that could just add to Biden's margin from 2020.

---

I think you are more optimistic on the benefit of Democratic spending.

The constant problem with Trump is that he has embraced and flaunted what should be damning faults, and that has made him more popular with the MAGA crowd. The people who were never going to vote for Trump will need no further convinving.

This will come down to how unpopular Biden is in the swing states, especially the Rust Belt. Mudslinging against Trump when there isn't that much more one could say about Trump that has not already been said may not be that effective.

What I would hope Biden does is present a moderate platform, distance himself from the more progressive stance, and make a pitch that will be compelling to the middle class in the Rust Belt. Without that, people have become so desensitized to Trump that mudslinging will not be effective.

---

Spending moves the needle, there isn't any question in my mind about that. Money isn't enough to win (see Trump in 2020) but it certainly has an impact. Right now, money hasn't entered the picture at all - we haven't seen any ads from any candidates (at least not in any meaningful numbers).

As for the MAGAts, everyone understands they will vote for Trump, but there aren't enough of them. As we saw in 2020, it doesn't matter how much the deplorables love Trump, they need people like you and independents to win. And those people still don't like Trump and nothing Biden has done or will do will change that.

I'm not sure what you are looking for in terms of a moderate platform from Biden. He's done what he said he would do. He passed bipartisan legislation. He governed from the middle. He's been under constant attack from progressives for not being progressive enough. That is a bit part of why his polling is so low - a lot of those people disapprove of Biden and think that somehow their tantrums will win them some progressive prize. The prize for progressives abandoning Biden is Trump and chaos. It's not free student loans, health care, UBI or anything else on their wishlist. It's not freedom for Palestine. Most will eventually realize it.

---

We will see. I am now rooting for Biden, if he is the candidate running against Trump.

My point is that he needs to win the Rust Belt and, therefore, he needs to cater to the moderate middle class workers in those states. The mistake that Hillary made was catering to those playing identity politics and taking blue collar workers in the Rust Belt for granted. I don't think Biden will make that mistake in 2024 since winning those states carried him in 2020, but I am hoping he does not listen to any progressive leaning advisors who may tilt him to make the same mistake Hillary made.

Mudslinging against Trump is not going to win over those voters. Promoting what his platform will be to grow the economy, protect middle class jobs (even if that's not possible), provide basic needs, etc. Run a positive campaign tailored to the moderates in Michigan, Wisconsin, etc.

Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

I do think there is something to the fact that Trump has been out of the spotlight for a while, which might mean that more casual voters don't even realize he's going to be the nominee again.

---

People who don't know that he will be a nominee again is a hermit who should not be voting.

---

A lot of people really don't even think about the upcoming Presidential election until like the last month before it happens. The people who do have probably mostly made up their minds already.

---

But Trump coverage is everywhere, because America is obsessed with Trump. There isn't a voter so casual that he does not know Trump is running. And if he is that casual, he won't bother to vote.

But agree that Trump voters have made up their minds, and anti-Trump voters have made up their minds as well.

It's independent voters like me who will still decide, but I think when it comes down to choosing between two **** candidates, the candidate who is not quoting Hitler will have to win out.

---

Eh, I'm not sure that's true at the level that moves elections. Right now the only primary happening is on the GOP side and it's been bloodless for Trump. If anything, the sycophants running for VP have done more to prop him up than they have to hurt him.

The general election will not be so kind to Trump. The vast majority of democratic spending will be in the last quarter leading up to the election - and it will exceed $1B (as it did in 2020). It will be quite easy for Biden to paint a contrast with Trump. All Trump will have to offer, once again, is Hunter Biden.

An interesting question is whether abortion initiatives will be on the ballot in any swing states in 2024. Groups in Arizona and Nevada are working hard to put it on the ballot and both states would be must-wins for Trump. If abortion is on the ballot, that could just add to Biden's margin from 2020.

---

I think you are more optimistic on the benefit of Democratic spending.

The constant problem with Trump is that he has embraced and flaunted what should be damning faults, and that has made him more popular with the MAGA crowd. The people who were never going to vote for Trump will need no further convinving.

This will come down to how unpopular Biden is in the swing states, especially the Rust Belt. Mudslinging against Trump when there isn't that much more one could say about Trump that has not already been said may not be that effective.

What I would hope Biden does is present a moderate platform, distance himself from the more progressive stance, and make a pitch that will be compelling to the middle class in the Rust Belt. Without that, people have become so desensitized to Trump that mudslinging will not be effective.

---

Spending moves the needle, there isn't any question in my mind about that. Money isn't enough to win (see Trump in 2020) but it certainly has an impact. Right now, money hasn't entered the picture at all - we haven't seen any ads from any candidates (at least not in any meaningful numbers).

As for the MAGAts, everyone understands they will vote for Trump, but there aren't enough of them. As we saw in 2020, it doesn't matter how much the deplorables love Trump, they need people like you and independents to win. And those people still don't like Trump and nothing Biden has done or will do will change that.

I'm not sure what you are looking for in terms of a moderate platform from Biden. He's done what he said he would do. He passed bipartisan legislation. He governed from the middle. He's been under constant attack from progressives for not being progressive enough. That is a bit part of why his polling is so low - a lot of those people disapprove of Biden and think that somehow their tantrums will win them some progressive prize. The prize for progressives abandoning Biden is Trump and chaos. It's not free student loans, health care, UBI or anything else on their wishlist. It's not freedom for Palestine. Most will eventually realize it.

---

We will see. I am now rooting for Biden, if he is the candidate running against Trump.

My point is that he needs to win the Rust Belt and, therefore, he needs to cater to the moderate middle class workers in those states. The mistake that Hillary made was catering to those playing identity politics and taking blue collar workers in the Rust Belt for granted. I don't think Biden will make that mistake in 2024 since winning those states carried him in 2020, but I am hoping he does not listen to any progressive leaning advisors who may tilt him to make the same mistake Hillary made.

Mudslinging against Trump is not going to win over those voters. Promoting what his platform will be to grow the economy, protect middle class jobs (even if that's not possible), provide basic needs, etc. Run a positive campaign tailored to the moderates in Michigan, Wisconsin, etc.

---

Sorry, just to be clear you are worried about Biden switching from his winning formula in 2020 to Hillary's losing formula in 2016? I don't think you need to lose sleep over that one, it's not happening.

Biden was chosen because he would beat Trump (he did) and not have the issues Hillary had. He won in the rust belt where he needed to and won in other states that people didn't expect like Georgia and Arizona. This is history now and there is no reason to believe that his team is going to pivot from a winning formula to a losing one.

---

Let's hope so. He is polling below where he was in 2020 in those states, so he has some convincing to do that he cares about what they truly care about (and it's not pronouns but it may be abortion rights and definitely economy, inflation, interest rate, immigration, etc.).

calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

I do think there is something to the fact that Trump has been out of the spotlight for a while, which might mean that more casual voters don't even realize he's going to be the nominee again.

---

People who don't know that he will be a nominee again is a hermit who should not be voting.

---

A lot of people really don't even think about the upcoming Presidential election until like the last month before it happens. The people who do have probably mostly made up their minds already.

---

But Trump coverage is everywhere, because America is obsessed with Trump. There isn't a voter so casual that he does not know Trump is running. And if he is that casual, he won't bother to vote.

But agree that Trump voters have made up their minds, and anti-Trump voters have made up their minds as well.

It's independent voters like me who will still decide, but I think when it comes down to choosing between two **** candidates, the candidate who is not quoting Hitler will have to win out.

---

Eh, I'm not sure that's true at the level that moves elections. Right now the only primary happening is on the GOP side and it's been bloodless for Trump. If anything, the sycophants running for VP have done more to prop him up than they have to hurt him.

The general election will not be so kind to Trump. The vast majority of democratic spending will be in the last quarter leading up to the election - and it will exceed $1B (as it did in 2020). It will be quite easy for Biden to paint a contrast with Trump. All Trump will have to offer, once again, is Hunter Biden.

An interesting question is whether abortion initiatives will be on the ballot in any swing states in 2024. Groups in Arizona and Nevada are working hard to put it on the ballot and both states would be must-wins for Trump. If abortion is on the ballot, that could just add to Biden's margin from 2020.

---

I think you are more optimistic on the benefit of Democratic spending.

The constant problem with Trump is that he has embraced and flaunted what should be damning faults, and that has made him more popular with the MAGA crowd. The people who were never going to vote for Trump will need no further convinving.

This will come down to how unpopular Biden is in the swing states, especially the Rust Belt. Mudslinging against Trump when there isn't that much more one could say about Trump that has not already been said may not be that effective.

What I would hope Biden does is present a moderate platform, distance himself from the more progressive stance, and make a pitch that will be compelling to the middle class in the Rust Belt. Without that, people have become so desensitized to Trump that mudslinging will not be effective.

---

Spending moves the needle, there isn't any question in my mind about that. Money isn't enough to win (see Trump in 2020) but it certainly has an impact. Right now, money hasn't entered the picture at all - we haven't seen any ads from any candidates (at least not in any meaningful numbers).

As for the MAGAts, everyone understands they will vote for Trump, but there aren't enough of them. As we saw in 2020, it doesn't matter how much the deplorables love Trump, they need people like you and independents to win. And those people still don't like Trump and nothing Biden has done or will do will change that.

I'm not sure what you are looking for in terms of a moderate platform from Biden. He's done what he said he would do. He passed bipartisan legislation. He governed from the middle. He's been under constant attack from progressives for not being progressive enough. That is a bit part of why his polling is so low - a lot of those people disapprove of Biden and think that somehow their tantrums will win them some progressive prize. The prize for progressives abandoning Biden is Trump and chaos. It's not free student loans, health care, UBI or anything else on their wishlist. It's not freedom for Palestine. Most will eventually realize it.

---

We will see. I am now rooting for Biden, if he is the candidate running against Trump.

My point is that he needs to win the Rust Belt and, therefore, he needs to cater to the moderate middle class workers in those states. The mistake that Hillary made was catering to those playing identity politics and taking blue collar workers in the Rust Belt for granted. I don't think Biden will make that mistake in 2024 since winning those states carried him in 2020, but I am hoping he does not listen to any progressive leaning advisors who may tilt him to make the same mistake Hillary made.

Mudslinging against Trump is not going to win over those voters. Promoting what his platform will be to grow the economy, protect middle class jobs (even if that's not possible), provide basic needs, etc. Run a positive campaign tailored to the moderates in Michigan, Wisconsin, etc.

---

Sorry, just to be clear you are worried about Biden switching from his winning formula in 2020 to Hillary's losing formula in 2016? I don't think you need to lose sleep over that one, it's not happening.

Biden was chosen because he would beat Trump (he did) and not have the issues Hillary had. He won in the rust belt where he needed to and won in other states that people didn't expect like Georgia and Arizona. This is history now and there is no reason to believe that his team is going to pivot from a winning formula to a losing one.

---

Let's hope so. He is polling below where he was in 2020 in those states, so he has some convincing to do that he cares about what they truly care about (and it's not pronouns but it may be abortion rights and definitely economy, inflation, interest rate, immigration, etc.).

---

When did Biden talk about pronouns in the rust belt? Are you talking about Biden or a strawman because it feels like you are attributing things to Biden that don't apply at all? People in the rust belt may be dissatisfied with their lives and blame Biden, but they also know that Trump isn't their savior. That's one of the biggest differences between now and his surprise win in 2016.

Gas prices are below $3 across the entire rust belt. Unemployment is at record lows. Inflation is basically back to normal. On "kitchen table" issues, Biden has a very good case. I haven't done the research but my recollection is that when the economy is fine (which it is) and we are not in an unpopular war (also true, we haven't had any combat deaths in over 2 years and I doubt he is going to enter any wars int he next 11 months), the incumbency advantage is massive.

If not for the pandemic, Trump likely would have won in 2020 and he was a terrible president with extremely high unfavorables from the get go. Unless the economy tanks in the next 11 months (which, as you know, is extremely unlikely unless some sort of systemic shock occurs), Biden will be in a very strong position to repeat.

Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

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sycasey said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

I do think there is something to the fact that Trump has been out of the spotlight for a while, which might mean that more casual voters don't even realize he's going to be the nominee again.

---

People who don't know that he will be a nominee again is a hermit who should not be voting.

---

A lot of people really don't even think about the upcoming Presidential election until like the last month before it happens. The people who do have probably mostly made up their minds already.

---

But Trump coverage is everywhere, because America is obsessed with Trump. There isn't a voter so casual that he does not know Trump is running. And if he is that casual, he won't bother to vote.

But agree that Trump voters have made up their minds, and anti-Trump voters have made up their minds as well.

It's independent voters like me who will still decide, but I think when it comes down to choosing between two **** candidates, the candidate who is not quoting Hitler will have to win out.

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Eh, I'm not sure that's true at the level that moves elections. Right now the only primary happening is on the GOP side and it's been bloodless for Trump. If anything, the sycophants running for VP have done more to prop him up than they have to hurt him.

The general election will not be so kind to Trump. The vast majority of democratic spending will be in the last quarter leading up to the election - and it will exceed $1B (as it did in 2020). It will be quite easy for Biden to paint a contrast with Trump. All Trump will have to offer, once again, is Hunter Biden.

An interesting question is whether abortion initiatives will be on the ballot in any swing states in 2024. Groups in Arizona and Nevada are working hard to put it on the ballot and both states would be must-wins for Trump. If abortion is on the ballot, that could just add to Biden's margin from 2020.

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I think you are more optimistic on the benefit of Democratic spending.

The constant problem with Trump is that he has embraced and flaunted what should be damning faults, and that has made him more popular with the MAGA crowd. The people who were never going to vote for Trump will need no further convinving.

This will come down to how unpopular Biden is in the swing states, especially the Rust Belt. Mudslinging against Trump when there isn't that much more one could say about Trump that has not already been said may not be that effective.

What I would hope Biden does is present a moderate platform, distance himself from the more progressive stance, and make a pitch that will be compelling to the middle class in the Rust Belt. Without that, people have become so desensitized to Trump that mudslinging will not be effective.

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Spending moves the needle, there isn't any question in my mind about that. Money isn't enough to win (see Trump in 2020) but it certainly has an impact. Right now, money hasn't entered the picture at all - we haven't seen any ads from any candidates (at least not in any meaningful numbers).

As for the MAGAts, everyone understands they will vote for Trump, but there aren't enough of them. As we saw in 2020, it doesn't matter how much the deplorables love Trump, they need people like you and independents to win. And those people still don't like Trump and nothing Biden has done or will do will change that.

I'm not sure what you are looking for in terms of a moderate platform from Biden. He's done what he said he would do. He passed bipartisan legislation. He governed from the middle. He's been under constant attack from progressives for not being progressive enough. That is a bit part of why his polling is so low - a lot of those people disapprove of Biden and think that somehow their tantrums will win them some progressive prize. The prize for progressives abandoning Biden is Trump and chaos. It's not free student loans, health care, UBI or anything else on their wishlist. It's not freedom for Palestine. Most will eventually realize it.

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We will see. I am now rooting for Biden, if he is the candidate running against Trump.

My point is that he needs to win the Rust Belt and, therefore, he needs to cater to the moderate middle class workers in those states. The mistake that Hillary made was catering to those playing identity politics and taking blue collar workers in the Rust Belt for granted. I don't think Biden will make that mistake in 2024 since winning those states carried him in 2020, but I am hoping he does not listen to any progressive leaning advisors who may tilt him to make the same mistake Hillary made.

Mudslinging against Trump is not going to win over those voters. Promoting what his platform will be to grow the economy, protect middle class jobs (even if that's not possible), provide basic needs, etc. Run a positive campaign tailored to the moderates in Michigan, Wisconsin, etc.

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Sorry, just to be clear you are worried about Biden switching from his winning formula in 2020 to Hillary's losing formula in 2016? I don't think you need to lose sleep over that one, it's not happening.

Biden was chosen because he would beat Trump (he did) and not have the issues Hillary had. He won in the rust belt where he needed to and won in other states that people didn't expect like Georgia and Arizona. This is history now and there is no reason to believe that his team is going to pivot from a winning formula to a losing one.

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Let's hope so. He is polling below where he was in 2020 in those states, so he has some convincing to do that he cares about what they truly care about (and it's not pronouns but it may be abortion rights and definitely economy, inflation, interest rate, immigration, etc.).

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When did Biden talk about pronouns in the rust belt? Are you talking about Biden or a strawman because it feels like you are attributing things to Biden that don't apply at all? People in the rust belt may be dissatisfied with their lives and blame Biden, but they also know that Trump isn't their savior. That's one of the biggest differences between now and his surprise win in 2016.

Gas prices are below $3 across the entire rust belt. Unemployment is at record lows. Inflation is basically back to normal. On "kitchen table" issues, Biden has a very good case. I haven't done the research but my recollection is that when the economy is fine (which it is) and we are not in an unpopular war (also true, we haven't had any combat deaths in over 2 years and I doubt he is going to enter any wars int he next 11 months), the incumbency advantage is massive.

If not for the pandemic, Trump likely would have won in 2020 and he was a terrible president with extremely high unfavorables from the get go. Unless the economy tanks in the next 11 months (which, as you know, is extremely unlikely unless some sort of systemic shock occurs), Biden will be in a very strong position to repeat.

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You are reading things that were not said or implied. I was stating what I believe moves Midwest voters, hence abortion but not transgender rights. Never once did I state that transgender rights were Biden's strategy. As such, if he focuses on things I mentioned, I suspect he will be successful. Focus on improvements made to the economy because people feel worse about the economy than it is mainly because of lingering impact of prior inflation and interest rate, and focus on his plans to accelerate the recovery.

Let's not create disagreement where one does not exist but deal with what was actually written. I was writing about what moves Midwest voters and what I hope his strategy
will be and not finding fault in Biden's campaign strategy that hasn't even been executed.

What will we do to maintain our democracy?
https://www.threads.net/@joebiden/post/C1sGhpAgas0/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

dajo9 said:

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What will we do to maintain our democracy?
https://www.threads.net/@joebiden/post/C1sGhpAgas0/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

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Joe Biden brags in his J6 doomer speech that his DOJ has targeted 1,200 J6ers, convicted 900, and sentenced them to 840 years in prison. He wants his political opponents afraid this can happen to them too. What a sick man. pic.twitter.com/7Hq75IGrYw

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) January 5, 2024

Arrest political opposition and send them to prison to be never heard from again?

How does Karine Jean-Pierre still have a job?

https://t.co/YQMVgtdgVD pic.twitter.com/TyzXJSHydt

— Still Boneless (@still_boneless) January 6, 2024

The United States of America was founded by insurrectionists.

Unit2Sucks said:

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sycasey said:

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So people who tried to storm the Capitol to prevent the certification of votes are now simply described as "political opposition." Sure.

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MAGA knows what insurrection is. Trump, who they think is smart and who claims to have perhaps the finest memory in the world, surely remembers the claim he made right before the election.

The next time a Republican tries to claim that Jan. 6 wasn't an "insurrection," just play them this video in which Trump tells Judge Jeanine in Sept. 2020 that if there are protests against his election in November, it would be an "insurrection." pic.twitter.com/rGa3xUmOWL

— David Neiwert (@DavidNeiwert) January 2, 2024

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If Trump wins the election, the resistance liberals and the Deep State will show you what a real insurrection looks like

This is the least senile person running for President in 2024. Imagine Trump keeping his shjt together for even 30 seconds.

Joe Biden is far from senile. Underestimate this man at your own risk. The man looks pretty damn Presidential. pic.twitter.com/tUw9UqWCJu

— Millennial Politics (@MillenPolitics) January 6, 2024

Recent Trump examples lol. Yet the GOPers think he's smart.

Have magnets replaced windmills as his new bogeyman? What traumatic experience did he suffer with them? https://t.co/Jb4aYjAlUu

— Dave- We’re only custodians (@Dave_H64) January 6, 2024

Trump, confused: Over the seas and over our land. And then they want us to have clean. I said wait, we’re gonna be clean but it’s all flying. Just remember that. Does that make sense? In other words, it’s all coming through the currents through the air, they can name it pic.twitter.com/bvkgaMakCY

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) January 6, 2024

Unit2Sucks said:

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This is the least senile person running for President in 2024. Imagine Trump keeping his shjt together for even 30 seconds.

Joe Biden is far from senile. Underestimate this man at your own risk. The man looks pretty damn Presidential. pic.twitter.com/tUw9UqWCJu

— Millennial Politics (@MillenPolitics) January 6, 2024

Recent Trump examples lol. Yet the GOPers think he's smart.

Have magnets replaced windmills as his new bogeyman? What traumatic experience did he suffer with them? https://t.co/Jb4aYjAlUu

— Dave- We’re only custodians (@Dave_H64) January 6, 2024

Trump, confused: Over the seas and over our land. And then they want us to have clean. I said wait, we’re gonna be clean but it’s all flying. Just remember that. Does that make sense? In other words, it’s all coming through the currents through the air, they can name it pic.twitter.com/bvkgaMakCY

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) January 6, 2024

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For a populist like Trump, sounding smart would be a negative. Besides, after the bleach rambling, what more evidence did we need?

sycasey said:

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bear2034 said:

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The United States of America was founded by insurrectionists.

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Yes, against a government that didn't allow them a vote. Is the plan to go back to that?

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The plan is to get to the bottom of Covid, J6, and the stolen elections,

bear2034 said:

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sycasey said:

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bear2034 said:

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The United States of America was founded by insurrectionists.

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Yes, against a government that didn't allow them a vote. Is the plan to go back to that?

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The plan is to get to the bottom of Covid, J6, and the stolen elections,

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I can help you out. The bottom of Covid and J6 was during Trump's last year in office. As for stolen elections, it's been 150 years and we're still trying to figure out how Rutherford B. Hayes stole the 1876 presidential election from Samuel Tilden.

Lloyd Austin in ICU for four days, assistant on vacay, 2 wars raging, abs Biden out of the loop.

Looks like, at minimum, depts are running themselves. No oversight.

What the funk Austin was in the ICU for 4 days and the White House didn’t event know??

Good thing there aren’t any military conflicts right now! pic.twitter.com/SQotfzBSib

— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) January 6, 2024

movielover said:

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Lloyd Austin in ICU for four days, assistant on vacay, 2 wars raging, abs Biden out of the loop.

Looks like, at minimum, depts are running themselves. No oversight.

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Joe Biden is cooked. The drugs have worn off for the night and he has no idea where he is. pic.twitter.com/pp1chZ1Ug9

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) January 6, 2024

I think Biden was trying to look for him.

Washington Post article - Obama has deep concerns about Biden's ability to defeat Trump and protect the Deep State system he built.



The BLM / AME partnership might be worried President Trump is reaching black voters.