golden sloth said:
Was trying to catch some videos of Kamala Harris speaking during her campaign to better educate myself on her, but as of yet not much is out there since she declared (it seems the people with the lowest profiles are the ones making the most TV appearances). I found the one below, and I came away thinking that she can do really well on the coasts, but in the upper great lakes I don't see her connecting with voters. I don't believe Criminal Justice Reform as a winning issue in those states (I don't mean to dismiss it as unimportant, just that in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, I don't see that messaage recapturing the voters that went for both Obama and Trump).
The catch is that, my logic says the easiest way to a Democratic White House is through the industrial midwest, which means flipping a few states that Trump narrowly won and where he has a net approval rating of -5. Perhaps, Harris' message of Criminal Justice Reform plays better in the southern states, and gives her the opportunity to turn states like Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina. Taking those states would allow her to loose the industrial midwest.
I've said from the beginning that I think Harris is gojng to surprise some people and win the nomination just because the primary schedule sets up so perfectly for her. And nothing I've seen so far has altered my view. In fact, the most recent cnn poll shows Harris as the one candidate with the most momentum. Yes she's currently in third, but it's typical this early in the race that those with name recognition will have initial leads.
But I do agree with you. While she's a good primary candidate, I don't like her chances in a general (for the reasons you touched on). Which is why I've been very hesitant to throw my support behind her.
Unfortunately, of all the top tier candidates, I think Biden has the best chance of beating trump (for the sole reason that he can take the Midwest). So I may end up voting for him even though he's one of my least favorite candidates.
This just shows the flaw in the current electoral process. The state's like the Midwest have way too much power. Rather than voting for the best candidate, or the candidate that I agree with policy wise, I'm forced to vote for the candidate whose only strength is that he appeals to midwesteners.
If we got rid of the electoral system, Harris would clean trump's clock.