dajo9 said:

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GBear4Life said:

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dajo9 said:

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concordtom said:

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GBear4Life said:

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dajo9 said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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In concordtom's elementary school training to join the Democrat Party he has once again been held back in the second grade.

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That's because he is a conservative Republican. For which, the constituency is small (maybe 20% of the voting public?). He is a man without a party. But at least he sees that Trump is a threat to the Republic and he and I are 100% sympatico on that.

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This a CNN parody? LOL

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YOU are a threat to the Republic, and you don't even know it.

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It's like Hemingway said, "there are many who do not know they are fascists but will find out when the time comes"

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Oh, ascribing 'fascist'. That's cool.

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That's what you call racist, undemocratic politics. If the shoe fits. . .

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Oh, doubling down on ascribing fascism and racism to those opposed. Even cooler.

Krugman's brilliant piece in The NY Times points out how tRump prevailed in the flyovers and won the election:
"...But mainly the G.O.P.'s political achievements depend on identity politics white identity politics. Exploiting racial resentment to capture white working-class voters...."

The Democrats have come up with just the magic bullet they will need to take back these votes in the flyovers and defeat tRump in 2020: Bow down to reparations. Brilliant!


https://www.axios.com/reparations-2020-presidential-candidates-02cce9ac-082e-4777-955b-33c8196e64c0.html

bearister said:

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Krugman's brilliant piece in The NY Times points out how tRump prevailed in the flyovers and won the election:
"...But mainly the G.O.P.'s political achievements depend on identity politics white identity politics. Exploiting racial resentment to capture white working-class voters...."

The Democrats have come up with just the magic bullet they will need to take back these votes in the flyovers and defeat tRump in 2020: Bow down to reparations.


https://www.axios.com/reparations-2020-presidential-candidates-02cce9ac-082e-4777-955b-33c8196e64c0.html

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It's a little late for meaningful reparations. Perhaps if we had given freed slaves some money or means to get educated or a program to teach them trades back in 1865, that would have meant something. 154 years later is a bit late to say "Oh by the way, sorry about bringing your great-great grandparents over on a boat against their will and depriving them of their basic human rights, here's a check to make it all better." THAT is what virtue signalling is.

Maybe instead of do that, give them some real economic opportunity to get educated, get higher paying jobs so that crime seems like the really bad option it ought to be rather than one of the only avenues afforded poor blacks. And for that matter, do the same for the Hispanics and any other poor people. Yes, even the bad white people.

I'm a second generation American. All 4 of my grandparents immigrated from Ireland after the turn of the last Century. My relatives were wronged by the same group that is primarily responsible for bringing slaves to the colonies, the British. They took my relatives' land, starved them to death during the Potato Famine, beat and imprisoned them and transported them to Australia.

Typical Mick virtue signaling!

Yogi Bear said:

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Maybe instead of do that, give them some real economic opportunity to get educated, get higher paying jobs

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Who is preventing blacks from 'real' economic opportunity, as opposed to 'fake' economic opportunity? What is 'real economic opportunity'? These are platitudes that have no actual meaning. What is the mythical force in the ether that is keeping blacks from getting educated but allows others to?

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get higher paying jobs so that crime seems like the really bad option it ought to be rather than one of the only avenues afforded poor blacks.

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So if society doesn't 'give them some real economic opportunity', them committing violent crimes at alarming rates should be expected as a natural consequence external failures and obstacles? Then I wonder why pre-civil rights movement in the 20th century when black income and education levels were lower and government sanctioned racism was prevalent, blacks had lower crime rates? There is a negative correlation between black crime and black freedom, prosperity and education.

Why are your views of blacks so low that you use a bogus premise to condescendingly presuppose blacks are destined for crime as the only avenue unless...other people give them 'opportunity'. Is this the standard you hold for the Jews and the Japanese?

Imagine espousing these maxims to your children: "Johnny, to be truthful robbing that liquor store was something you felt was your only way out. I mean, society is really not offering you any opportunities."

You might suggest what you know works and what you would advise anybody you personally cared about: changing behavior and improving cultural values.

Cultural developments post civil-rights movement became a liability, and as more blacks developed cultural and economic resources through education and professional success, they left the ghettos and took their resources out of those communities.

There is no magic bullet. You all but eliminate a life of poverty if you graduate HS, don't have children out of wedlock, be fully and consecutively employed at any job, and avoid the criminal justice system. All highly achievable thresholds to meet and thankfully those are all within our control -- but the values have to align with these goals, as values inform behavior.

Anarchistbear said:

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Typical Mick virtue signaling!

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I don't have to take yer guff you little squint!

GBear4Life said:

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So if society doesn't 'give them some real economic opportunity', them committing violent crimes at alarming rates should be expected as a natural consequence external failures and obstacles? Then I wonder why pre-civil rights movement in the 20th century when black income and education levels were lower and government sanctioned racism was prevalent, blacks had lower crime rates? There is a negative correlation between black crime and black freedom, prosperity and education.

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Cite your source please.

GBear4Life said:

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concordtom said:

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GBear4Life said:

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concordtom said:

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GBear4Life said:

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dajo9 said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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In concordtom's elementary school training to join the Democrat Party he has once again been held back in the second grade.

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That's because he is a conservative Republican. For which, the constituency is small (maybe 20% of the voting public?). He is a man without a party. But at least he sees that Trump is a threat to the Republic and he and I are 100% sympatico on that.

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This a CNN parody? LOL

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YOU are a threat to the Republic, and you don't even know it.

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Me? LOL. Or is your post the CNN parody?

Care to expound? I know I haven't condemned 100 million people as inferior for disagreeing with me. Have you?...

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Yeah, actually I do condemn you.
Guilty of stupidity for not recognizing that Trump is a scoundrel.
Any day over the past 3, or 30, years should have been a clue to you.

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Assertion not founded in evidence, your honor.

You will continue to help Republicans win elections and be completely oblivious to it.

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Still stupid, though!

GBear4Life said:

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Yogi Bear said:

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Maybe instead of do that, give them some real economic opportunity to get educated, get higher paying jobs

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Who is preventing blacks from 'real' economic opportunity, as opposed to 'fake' economic opportunity? What is 'real economic opportunity'? These are platitudes that have no actual meaning. What is the mythical force in the ether that is keeping blacks from getting educated but allows others to?

Quote:

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get higher paying jobs so that crime seems like the really bad option it ought to be rather than one of the only avenues afforded poor blacks.

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So if society doesn't 'give them some real economic opportunity', them committing violent crimes at alarming rates should be expected as a natural consequence external failures and obstacles? Then I wonder why pre-civil rights movement in the 20th century when black income and education levels were lower and government sanctioned racism was prevalent, blacks had lower crime rates? There is a negative correlation between black crime and black freedom, prosperity and education.

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https://slate.com/business/2013/04/desegregation-and-crime-resegregation-has-led-to-a-spike-in-violent-crime.html

I'm just gonna let this be your tag line so that people know what you're all about in one sentence.

"There is a negative correlation between black crime and black freedom, prosperity and education."

"The Rise and Fall of Violent Crime in America" Barry Latzer (2016). One of the more comprehensive collections of syndicated crime data I've read (still not finished)

In this Vox piece, it challenges some of its conclusions about "black culture" but acknowledges the reported data of "crime explosions" in the 1960s (in both America generally and blacks specifically) during the same time frame the civil rights was making such great strides, and then hitting its zenith in the late 80s and holding to today (the frequently cited FBI stats of 50% of homicides as 13% of the population).

Given the fact that post civil rights when black income, education levels, and freedom increased (and sanctioned racism ended), the black crime rate actually increased from a pre-Civil Rights Act era when educational achievement, socio economoic levels, and freedom (and out of wedlock birth rates were much lower) levels were substantially lower, that is in fact a negative correlation that renders "structural explanations" that center around education and socio-economics as an inadequate and incorrect explanation.

Vox has an obvious ideological slant here that drives their caution and skepticism, and though I disagree with some of its conclusions, it's a pretty fair-handed and comprehensive and informative review of some of the analysis in the book and the topic. I thought it was a good read.

This I thought was also a good read on the rise of glorified violence and anti-social attitudes in black culture starting in the 1970's/80s that didn't exist in the 40s/50s.

At bottom, I reject the idea of cultural relativism -- that is, essentially culture doesn't matter because they all more or less value the same things, and value them equally well, and if we simply isolate for social circumstances, outcomes between cultures will be the same -- when the disparities between cultures are too in the same society negate that. In fact, as a society becomes more egalitarian under the law -- in effect, social conditions equalized -- the disparities in outcomes, such as career choice, become greater between groups, not smaller. What that suggests to me is, as you work to make society more free and equal (the West generally), that's when cultural values "flourish" so to speak; in other words, the full capacity of the positives and liabilities of a culture will surface fully.

GBear4Life said:

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"The Rise and Fall of Violent Crime in America" Barry Latzer (2016). One of the more comprehensive collections of syndicated crime data I've read (still not finished)

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Ben Weingarten: In the post-Depression era through the early '60s, you note that among black Americans, there are great gains and this is corroborated by the works of [Thomas] Sowell and others both in terms of increases in socioeconomic standing, in literacy and education, and a movement into the middle-class of a disproportionate percentage of black Americans relative to the prior period. But at the same time, you note that there is a relative skyrocketing in the black crime rate, while all these other indicators would seem to suggest that you would imagine crime would be falling or stagnant at worst. How do you explain that?

Barry Latzer: Right. Quite surprising. And in fact, there doesn't seem to be a consistent relationship between general economic conditions and rises or falls in crime. Sometimes you have recessions, or even the Great Depression, and crime will both rise and fall, at different times of course. So it doesn't seem to be a consistent relationship there.

GBear4Life: There is a negative correlation between black crime and black freedom, prosperity and education.

Barry Latzer: So while it's true that almost all violent offenders are poor, it's not true that all poor groups are violent.

GBear4Life: There is a negative correlation between black crime and black freedom, prosperity and education.

It seems like there's a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem with the "rise in black crime" argument. Is it that black people actually started committing more crimes, or is it that the criminal-justice system started cracking down more on black people?

sycasey said:

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It seems like there's a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem with the "rise in black crime" argument. Is it that black people actually started committing more crimes, or is it that the criminal-justice system started cracking down more on black people?

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There was a spike in crime across all races in the 1960s - 1990s. The criminal justice system didn't create that.

dajo9 said:

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sycasey said:

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It seems like there's a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem with the "rise in black crime" argument. Is it that black people actually started committing more crimes, or is it that the criminal-justice system started cracking down more on black people?

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There was a spike in crime across all races in the 1960s - 1990s. The criminal justice system didn't create that.

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It's an assumption, but I'd guess the author in question would also cite some kind of stat that blacks were disproportionately responsible for said crimes. Which also raises the question: disproportionately responsible or disproportionately prosecuted?

sycasey said:

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dajo9 said:

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sycasey said:

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It seems like there's a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem with the "rise in black crime" argument. Is it that black people actually started committing more crimes, or is it that the criminal-justice system started cracking down more on black people?

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There was a spike in crime across all races in the 1960s - 1990s. The criminal justice system didn't create that.

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It's an assumption, but I'd guess the author in question would also cite some kind of stat that blacks were disproportionately responsible for said crimes. Which also raises the question: disproportionately responsible or disproportionately prosecuted?

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No doubt blacks were disproportionately punished

I really like Biden's slogan. It's something I haven't heard in a long time.

Okaydo, please edit your embedded tweet as it isn't resolving (on iPhone) or dead.

Chris Christie to Tina Brown: "If Biden can make it through the primaries, he's the one Dem candidate who appeals to the white working-class voters who handed the election to Trump and could hand 2020 to Biden instead." Axios

Joe Biden is the ultimate centrist Democrat. Is that a liability or strength?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/25/joe-biden-2020-democrats-choice?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Well, do the Dems go all whiny crybaby hyena when their candidate does not get the nomination and hand 2020 Election to the Mad King or do they sack up and back the last man or woman standing?



12% of the Bernie angry drama queens voted for tRump in the General Election (https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds)

bearister said:

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Chris Christie to Tina Brown: "If Biden can make it through the primaries, he's the one Dem candidate who appeals to the white working-class voters who handed the election to Trump and could hand 2020 to Biden instead." Axios

Joe Biden is the ultimate centrist Democrat. Is that a liability or strength?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/25/joe-biden-2020-democrats-choice?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Well, do the Dems go all whiny crybaby hyena when their candidate does not get the nomination and hand 2020 Election to the Mad King or do they sack up and back the last man or woman standing?



12% of the Bernie angry drama queens voted for tRump in the General Election (https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds)

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I think you better read that article a lot more carefully. It isn't saying what you think it is.

Quote:

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For example, Schaffner tells NPR that around 12 percent of Republican primary voters (including 34 percent of Ohio Gov. John Kasich voters and 11 percent of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio voters) ended up voting for Clinton.

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I guess I read this wrong:

"Fully 12 percent of people who voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries voted for President Trump in the general election. That is according to the data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study a massive election survey of around 50,000 people." NPR

Your Average American Joe


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/25/opinion/joe-biden-president.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

bearister said:

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I guess I read this wrong:

"Fully 12 percent of people who voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries voted for President Trump in the general election. That is according to the data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study a massive election survey of around 50,000 people." NPR

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No, you read that part right. What you're not understanding is that it's not unusual for a percentage of that size voting for the other party. It's not "bitter Bernie bros", despite bitter "I'm with her" supporters blaming them.

bearister said:

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Your Average American Joe

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/25/opinion/joe-biden-president.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

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At least he has a voting record we can review, but I'm not sure what Biden stands for, other than himself. He better sell something more than "I'm a regular guy" if he wants my vote.

sycasey said:

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It seems like there's a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem with the "rise in black crime" argument. Is it that black people actually started committing more crimes, or is it that the criminal-justice system started cracking down more on black people?

It's an assumption... Which also raises the question: disproportionately responsible or disproportionately prosecuted?

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No, there isn't. And you're painting yourself into a narrower and narrower corner.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears you;re suggesting (or more accurately, in your words, "assuming") that cops basically ignored, and thus didn't report, large swaths violent crimes (but only for blacks) pre-1960, then post 1960 started taking calls on violent black crime? This is an amazing theory. I'm not even sure YOU actually believe that, which is why I'm hesitant to assert that is what you believe.

The noted "rise in black crime" during that time period is not an "argument". It's a fact. The conclusions reached as to how and why "arguments". Some are more reasonable than others. Some follow logical consistency and others work backwards from an ideologically driven maxim.

And given that the facts are clear -- that for a span of roughly half a century, as equality, access and socio economic conditions improved dramatically in the black community, so did its violent crime -- it, by definition, cannot be fully, or even primarily, explained by socio economic status. You literally cannot credibly say that the alarmingly high black crime rates are only the result of historical oppression/racism/household income because they were much more profound 80 years ago when the crime rates were lower.

You didn't actually address the rising crime rates or what a reasonable assumption would be. You simply pivoted to a wild and unfounded theory in order to avoid addressing the issue of cultural impact on crime given the data didn't align with your ideological presuppositions.

Do you acknowledge cultures are different and that they generate different outcomes? And that behavior and attitudes drive larger cultural forces that produce disparate outcomes due to different values systems and priorities? (e.g., blacks with comparable incomes as whites spend 17% less on education and 32% more 'visible goods' i.e. cars, jewelry, etc.; this is a cultural trend that hinders the accumulation of wealth and resources relative to other groups)

This sort of cultural marxism that renders culture and its impacts beyond reproach -- but only for select groups -- is a phenomenon that, as far as I can tell, has ramped up in the last decade, and was not part of the Liberal lexicon growing up.

But if we want to break cycles, and help groups to reach the levels of their peers, identifying their cultural strengths and liabilities, and talking openly about how to improve them through changes in behavior -- graduate HS, don't have children out of wedlock, keep a job, and avoiding felonies is a start according to the Brookings Institute -- is not just prudent its essential. It will never happen with echo champers professing culture doesn't matter, only external circumstanes determine the choices you make and thus your destiny.

(Good reads and vid IMO)
Black American Culture and the Racial Wealth Gap w/links to its cited studies

Sam Harris Podcast featuring author of above piece discussing the topic (both are liberals)

On Biden...If only Democrats could run an experiment where they nominate a centrist, establishment candidate for president against Trump to see how it goes...

GBear4Life said:

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sycasey said:

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It seems like there's a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem with the "rise in black crime" argument. Is it that black people actually started committing more crimes, or is it that the criminal-justice system started cracking down more on black people?

It's an assumption... Which also raises the question: disproportionately responsible or disproportionately prosecuted?

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No, there isn't. And you're painting yourself into a narrower and narrower corner.

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Wuss. Wouldn't respond to any of my quotes from your favorite author. Guess you don't like discussion so much when you realize you're on the losing end.

GBear4Life said:

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(Good reads and vid IMO)
Black American Culture and the Racial Wealth Gap w/links to its cited studies

Sam Harris Podcast featuring author of above piece discussing the topic (both are liberals)

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The second factor offered as an explanation for the wealth gap is the exclusion of blacks from a set of New Deal policies designed to promote home ownership, income growth, and wealth accrual. After World War II, whites received the vast majority of government-backed mortgage loans. By the time the civil rights gains of the 1960s made these loans available to blacks, it was too late - the crucial economic boom of the previous two decades, during which housing values rapidly appreciated, had already passed, and blacks, reeling from the effects of redlining and income suppression, couldn't enter the housing market at its new prices. Wealth in the form of property and inheritances transferred from parent to child became a birthright for whites. Meanwhile, deprived of such wealth transfers, poverty became a permanent trap for blacks.

It's a shame your reading comprehension is so low.

Also recently learned one of the sad results of school desegregation was that nearly all black teachers were fired. Instead of integrating black teachers into integrated schools they were fired and black students were taught by white teachers. Not only did that harm the socio-economics of the black communities (what jobs could an educated black woman get in the 1960s) it also hurt the black students. Numerous studies show that teachers are more "fair" to students of their own race, even subconsciously.

To ignore all this is to give in to one's racist instincts instead of using their brain.

GBear4Life said:

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sycasey said:

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It seems like there's a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem with the "rise in black crime" argument. Is it that black people actually started committing more crimes, or is it that the criminal-justice system started cracking down more on black people?

It's an assumption... Which also raises the question: disproportionately responsible or disproportionately prosecuted?

---

No, there isn't. And you're painting yourself into a narrower and narrower corner.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears you;re suggesting (or more accurately, in your words, "assuming") that cops basically ignored, and thus didn't report, large swaths violent crimes (but only for blacks) pre-1960, then post 1960 started taking calls on violent black crime? This is an amazing theory. I'm not even sure YOU actually believe that, which is why I'm hesitant to assert that is what you believe.

The noted "rise in black crime" during that time period is not an "argument". It's a fact. The conclusions reached as to how and why "arguments". Some are more reasonable than others. Some follow logical consistency and others work backwards from an ideologically driven maxim.

And given that the facts are clear -- that for a span of roughly half a century, as equality, access and socio economic conditions improved dramatically in the black community, so did its violent crime -- it, by definition, cannot be fully, or even primarily, explained by socio economic status. You literally cannot credibly say that the alarmingly high black crime rates are only the result of historical oppression/racism/household income because they were much more profound 80 years ago when the crime rates were lower.

You didn't actually address the rising crime rates or what a reasonable assumption would be. You simply pivoted to a wild and unfounded theory in order to avoid addressing the issue of cultural impact on crime given the data didn't align with your ideological presuppositions.

Do you acknowledge cultures are different and that they generate different outcomes? And that behavior and attitudes drive larger cultural forces that produce disparate outcomes due to different values systems and priorities? (e.g., blacks with comparable incomes as whites spend 17% less on education and 32% more 'visible goods' i.e. cars, jewelry, etc.; this is a cultural trend that hinders the accumulation of wealth and resources relative to other groups)

This sort of cultural marxism that renders culture and its impacts beyond reproach -- but only for select groups -- is a phenomenon that, as far as I can tell, has ramped up in the last decade, and was not part of the Liberal lexicon growing up.

But if we want to break cycles, and help groups to reach the levels of their peers, identifying their cultural strengths and liabilities, and talking openly about how to improve them through changes in behavior -- graduate HS, don't have children out of wedlock, keep a job, and avoiding felonies is a start according to the Brookings Institute -- is not just prudent its essential. It will never happen with echo champers professing culture doesn't matter, only external circumstanes determine the choices you make and thus your destiny.

(Good reads and vid IMO)
Black American Culture and the Racial Wealth Gap w/links to its cited studies

Sam Harris Podcast featuring author of above piece discussing the topic (both are liberals)

---

Good Lord, get down off your high horse already. You've taken a couple of short posts by me and come up with a whole host of motivations all on your own, then explained them back at me.

Believe it or not, I'm actually asking a question. You cite statistics about a rising black crime rate during a time of rising black prosperity. I think it's a completely reasonable question to ask about how that data was collected and if it's controlled for the (possible) factor of heavier prosecution of black offenders. I ask this question because that factor is something that black scholars have been making the case for for years.

The answer I would expect from someone who is actually interested in an academic dialogue would be: "Sure, this is addressed here: [LINK]." Or maybe, "You're right, this is potential variable, but here's why I have doubts." Instead, you just assert that it's a "fact" and accuse me of trying to assert wild theories, then you present new stats that don't actually answer my question. Sorry if I don't take your "facts" at face value, but over in the immigration thread when I tried to research something you presented as "fact" about DACA recipients I found that it was complete bunk. I think it's entirely reasonable that I question your sources now.

If you want to know what I ACTUALLY think, I think it's very complicated, way more than most people want to admit (including you). I think there is some merit to the idea that cultural expectations hold certain groups back and it's not all systemic racism, but I also think that the origins of those cultural problems can often be traced back to said racism (for example, even your primary cited source Barry Latzer posits that African-Americans inherited a "violent culture" from white Southerners, a.k.a. slave-owners). I also don't think that all of the problems with racism in America were solved with Civil Rights legislation back in the 60s, as some conservatives might like to believe. If you're wondering why I focus more on the latter, it's because I don't think there's anything I can personally do about "black culture" (whatever that might mean), as I'm not part of that community. If there are places where structural barriers can be identified and removed, I'm in favor of that as a positive step forward. I'm also not under any illusions that everything can be solved in one swift move.

I'm interested in seeing new data that could change my perceptions of these issues, but I also want to make sure it's data that has accounted for a lot of the variables that can impact a complex issue like this. Hence my questions here. I have to say that most of your cited articles seem one-sided to me (except for the Vox one, which as you said had a liberal slant but took pains to present multiple sides of the issue) and still leave me with the same questions.

Life expectancy declining. Overdoses, alcoholism and suicides rising. More children born out of wedlock. A large % of the population on welfare. This has all been documented for rural whites with a high school education.