2020 Election - Catch-all Thread

54,144 Views | 1587 Replies | Last: 13 hrs ago by Another Bear
OneKeg
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bearister said:

Fox News poll shows Trump losing to Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457645-fox-news-poll-shows-trump-losing-to-biden-warren-sanders-and-harris%3famp


Long way to go though. Republicans will rally back to their team for the general election. Even if they waver, Fox with their massive reach will convince them that the Dem candidate will steal their guns and bibles and tax money. And use the proceeds to cater gay weddings for Guatemalan illegal immigrant Islamic Antifa hippie welfare queen trans-bathroom invader terrorists.

Question is, will Dems also rally (as they did somewhat in 2018) and for which candidate?
sycasey
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OneKeg said:

bearister said:

Fox News poll shows Trump losing to Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457645-fox-news-poll-shows-trump-losing-to-biden-warren-sanders-and-harris%3famp


Long way to go though. Republicans will rally back to their team for the general election. Even if they waver, Fox with their massive reach will convince them that the Dem candidate will steal their guns and bibles and tax money. And use the proceeds to cater gay weddings for Guatemalan illegal immigrant Islamic Antifa hippie welfare queen trans-bathroom invader terrorists.

Question is, will Dems also rally (as they did somewhat in 2018) and for which candidate?

That's the thing, Republicans tried all this stuff in 2018 and it didn't prevent a big wave that gave the Democrats the House back (and only structural advantages allowed Republicans to gain seats in the Senate).

If both sides show up, Democrats win.
BearNakedLadies
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sycasey said:

OdontoBear66 said:

sycasey said:

The only real stumble Warren has had was that video touting her DNA sample and Native American ancestry. Ironically, that may actually have helped her a bit, in that it caused people to discount her chances early and she didn't get the crosshairs on her like Beto or Biden or Kamala.

Otherwise she's just been out there releasing policy plans and saying the same stuff on the stump and rising in the polls.
Man, has Harris imploded. Seems like every day she one up her mistakes. Looks to me like Warren.

I'm not sure that Harris has a real narrative to her campaign. Like, what is she for? With Biden or Bernie or Warren you know what their argument is. Harris just seems to be there as the candidate whose identity looks good on paper (young, progressive, woman of color).
Yep. Other than saying "I don't think you're a racist" to Biden (which is a back door way of telling someone that they actually are kind of a racist), she hasn't distinguished herself in any way.
OneKeg
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sycasey said:

OneKeg said:

bearister said:

Fox News poll shows Trump losing to Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457645-fox-news-poll-shows-trump-losing-to-biden-warren-sanders-and-harris%3famp


Long way to go though. Republicans will rally back to their team for the general election. Even if they waver, Fox with their massive reach will convince them that the Dem candidate will steal their guns and bibles and tax money. And use the proceeds to cater gay weddings for Guatemalan illegal immigrant Islamic Antifa hippie welfare queen trans-bathroom invader terrorists.

Question is, will Dems also rally (as they did somewhat in 2018) and for which candidate?

That's the thing, Republicans tried all this stuff in 2018 and it didn't prevent a big wave that gave the Democrats the House back (and only structural advantages allowed Republicans to gain seats in the Senate).

If both sides show up, Democrats win.


Agree with the if - mostly.

Yes the 2018 Senate races were structurally hugely tilted red. But at least some part of that is that the Senate now and for the foreseeable future will have a red-tilt due to the rural-urban schism and the Senate by its nature propping up small rural states and giving them far more than their share of influence. Gaining a Senate majority will be difficult in 2020. Hickenlooper dropping out to focus on CO helps.

And as for the Presidency, the Dems need to flip PA, MI AND WI. Of course flipping (esp) FL or AZ or NC could change that though if that happens, the Dems probably have it anyway. I mean FL went red even in 2018. But flipping all 3 northern swing states is a tall order in a good economy. Possible but tough. Now if the economy goes south then all bets are off and Trump is toast.

Finally, as for the House, yeah I see the Dems probably hanging on to that barring a meltdown. That will let them block some things (though not SCOTUS noms) and otherwise not much without the Senate and Presidency.

I hope you are right and the wider and more diffuse Dem base comes together and rallies. Man does this nation need it.
Unit2Sucks
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OneKeg said:

Now if the economy goes south then all bets are off and Trump is toast.



This is why Trump is melting down. Other Republicans will turn tail and run from him so fast it will make Steve Doocy's head spin. Mitch McConnell is nothing if not expedient and will abandon Trump if the economy turns south. He will do everything he can to pin it on the Democrats but will not be afraid to run against Trump either.
Anarchistbear
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECHY4KfXkAYAUgr?format=jpg&name=small
B.A. Bearacus
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bearister
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concordtom
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OneKeg said:

...Republicans will rally back to their team for the general election. Even if they waver, Fox with their massive reach will convince them that the Dem candidate will steal their guns and bibles and tax money. And use the proceeds to cater gay weddings for Guatemalan illegal immigrant Islamic Antifa hippie welfare queen trans-bathroom invader terrorists.


But wait, we ARE going to do that, though, right?
concordtom
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bearister said:


You don't have to edit the ACTUAL poll, which asked if Trump deserves to live.
concordtom
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Unit2Sucks said:

OneKeg said:

Now if the economy goes south then all bets are off and Trump is toast.



This is why Trump is melting down. Other Republicans will turn tail and run from him so fast it will make Steve Doocy's head spin. Mitch McConnell is nothing if not expedient and will abandon Trump if the economy turns south. He will do everything he can to pin it on the Democrats but will not be afraid to run against Trump either.
Why does it seem like Dems are rooting for a recession?
That's sad.
But truthfully, anything to get rid of the hideous monster before he blows us all to smithereens.
concordtom
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B.A. Bearacus said:

Musk supports UBI and the candidate pushing for it.



Okay, sorry, but that did NOT look genuine.
OneKeg
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concordtom said:

OneKeg said:

...Republicans will rally back to their team for the general election. Even if they waver, Fox with their massive reach will convince them that the Dem candidate will steal their guns and bibles and tax money. And use the proceeds to cater gay weddings for Guatemalan illegal immigrant Islamic Antifa hippie welfare queen trans-bathroom invader terrorists.


But wait, we ARE going to do that, though, right?
Maybe?

Would be better than the current self-inflicted pre-fascist downward spiral that we and much of the world find ourselves in.

Which is what will probably continue since like I said, barring a recession, I think Trump is probably going to win, with or without foreign interference. A ton of those people that hate Trump now will hate whoever the Dem candidate is even more a year from now.

I'm not rooting for a recession - I'm rooting for my amateur analysis of the 2020 election to be wrong.
bearister
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Restore the Soul of the Nation

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BearNIt
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The Idiot in Chief and the Republicans will revive one of their election go to moves as they are now starting to mention illegal voting and will no doubt move on to voter suppression efforts as the 2020 election approaches. This time nobody will stay home as the Idiot in Chief's conduct over the last three years has seen to that.
bearister
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Trump's fragile policy legacy

"Much of President Trump's policy record from health care to energy to immigration would need a second term to take root, and could be easily reversed if he loses, Axios health care editor Sam Baker writes.

Why it matters: Trump has few big legislative wins, and heads into 2020 with a policy record largely from executive action regulations and rollbacks.
Trump's economic policies are the most likely to outlast a one-term presidency, Axios' Dion Rabouin reports:

Undoing the 2017 tax cuts would take another act of Congress.
But on many other domestic policy issues, Trump's impact has been lighter:

On health care, the administration is falling short of its original ambitions. The Affordable Care Act is still standing. Several big regulatory ideas have fallen by the wayside or are meeting resistance in the courts.
On energy, big-picture promises of bringing back the coal industry have fallen flat, according to Axios' Amy Harder. Many efforts to roll back Obama's rules and regulatory changes are caught up in legal challenges.
On trade, a Democratic president could unwind Trump's trade war, although it's not clear that a President Sanders or President Warren would want to.
The big picture: Trump's impact on politics, and his reshaping of the federal judiciary, will leave a bigger footprint than he has secured for himself.

Similarly, on immigration, experts tell Axios' Stef Kight that Trump's successor can easily reverse Trump's policies but not the hardened politics in an area where compromise once seemed possible.
Many of Trump's social policies aren't particularly durable on their own, but could be with an assist from the courts.

Trump has reversed or modified Obama-era rules on abortion and LGBTQ non-discrimination. But in some of those cases, Obama had reversed Bush-era rules and a Democratic president could change them back.
Trump's ability to reshape the courts, however, will likely lead to a significant narrowing of abortion rights.
What's next: Trump has more time, especially on drug prices and trade, where the White House is working hard to strike one more legislative deal." Axios
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bearister
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BearNIt said:

The Idiot in Chief and the Republicans will revive one of their election go to moves as they are now starting to mention illegal voting and will no doubt move on to voter suppression efforts as the 2020 election approaches. This time nobody will stay home as the Idiot in Chief's conduct over the last three years has seen to that.


...and also laying a foundation to delegitimize the election should the fat f@uck lose.
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Anarchistbear
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bearister said:

Restore the Soul of the Nation









Mr. Soul.
BearNIt
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bearister said:

BearNIt said:

The Idiot in Chief and the Republicans will revive one of their election go to moves as they are now starting to mention illegal voting and will no doubt move on to voter suppression efforts as the 2020 election approaches. This time nobody will stay home as the Idiot in Chief's conduct over the last three years has seen to that.


...and also laying a foundation to delegitimize the election should the fat f@uck lose.
That is a scary proposition, a country descending into chaos which could cost lives.
Another Bear
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Trump in 2020 looks like the GOP's last stand...and thus they are going to pull every dirty trick and tactic. Many pundits predict this.

Expect the usual voter suppression and scare tactics. Expect Russkie interference...and expect the fear mongering to go to "11" or higher as they try and whip the fear into a foamy Santorium froth.

Trump needs to nail down his base of deplorable, white identity voters and the sundry racist and proud boys. I think the rust belt swing states are leaning heavily Dem. Given his sinking polls, he will do anything...and proven before...but he'll step it up..maybe to "12". Also look for a bigly, crazy October surprise...something truly Trumpian.

There is a little hope. The same crew that went after Al Qaeda and the Taliban web networks is now on the Russians. Also Eric Holder and Obama have formed at anti-voter suppression group. Hope they work...but expect a true shtt storm from Trump. It will be so bad it will make the Willie Horton crap look like JFK Camelot days.

sycasey
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I'm honestly not sure if the GOP could engage in even MORE scare tactics. Seems like they've been ramped up to 11 for at least a few years now.
bearister
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Anarchistbear said:

bearister said:

Restore the Soul of the Nation









Mr. Soul.


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Another Bear
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No one thought things could get worse than Dubya and yet they did.

No one thought Trump would get this far or go this far but he has.

No one figured he'd tell over 10 lies per day.

No one figured he loaded up the swamp with bigger looters.

Given all this and he has no real strategy, is incompetent and literally has Nazis working for him...I'm certain he's going to ratchet the whole chaos machine up because he doesn't have anything else. He's going to spew the hate like Putin at a pee party. He has also started attacking Fox News...so buckle up is all I can say.


prospeCt
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https://blog.dupontregistry.com/celebrity-cars/vice-president-joe-bidens-burnout-in-his-1967-corvette-stingray/




https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/bernie-sanders
sycasey
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Another Bear said:

No one thought things could get worse than Dubya and yet they did.

No one thought Trump would get this far or go this far but he has.

No one figured he'd tell over 10 lies per day.

No one figured he loaded up the swamp with bigger looters.

Given all this and he has no real strategy, is incompetent and literally has Nazis working for him...I'm certain he's going to ratchet the whole chaos machine up because he doesn't have anything else. He's going to spew the hate like Putin at a pee party. He has also started attacking Fox News...so buckle up is all I can say.


Oh, I definitely figured Trump would do all that when he was in office. And given the way the GOP behaved during the Obama years, I knew they could do worse than Dubya.
Unit2Sucks
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If people learn one thing from the Trump debacle it's to never underestimate how craven the Republican Party can be and how complicit it's voters are.
Another Bear
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sycasey said:

Another Bear said:

No one thought things could get worse than Dubya and yet they did.

No one thought Trump would get this far or go this far but he has.

No one figured he'd tell over 10 lies per day.

No one figured he loaded up the swamp with bigger looters.

Given all this and he has no real strategy, is incompetent and literally has Nazis working for him...I'm certain he's going to ratchet the whole chaos machine up because he doesn't have anything else. He's going to spew the hate like Putin at a pee party. He has also started attacking Fox News...so buckle up is all I can say.


Oh, I definitely figured Trump would do all that when he was in office. And given the way the GOP behaved during the Obama years, I knew they could do worse than Dubya.
Yeah okay on Trump's crap. Frankly while horrible, his incompetence has kept his reign of errors from being much worse. Still bad but imagine if he were competent. That's dumb luck.

The real motherf***** is Moscow Mitch. Gamed the judicial system, aides Russia, obstructing legislation on elections security and gun control as senate majority leader.

Looks like the Dem game plan is run the clock, aim to beat Trump in an election, let his negatives fester. 14 months until Nov. 2020. Hard to trust the Dem's on strategy but this might do the least damage. Still have to prosecute Trump afterwards.
concordtom
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Another Bear said:

sycasey said:

Another Bear said:

No one thought things could get worse than Dubya and yet they did.

No one thought Trump would get this far or go this far but he has.

No one figured he'd tell over 10 lies per day.

No one figured he loaded up the swamp with bigger looters.

Given all this and he has no real strategy, is incompetent and literally has Nazis working for him...I'm certain he's going to ratchet the whole chaos machine up because he doesn't have anything else. He's going to spew the hate like Putin at a pee party. He has also started attacking Fox News...so buckle up is all I can say.


Oh, I definitely figured Trump would do all that when he was in office. And given the way the GOP behaved during the Obama years, I knew they could do worse than Dubya.
Yeah okay on Trump's crap. Frankly while horrible, his incompetence has kept his reign of errors from being much worse. Still bad but imagine if he were competent. That's dumb luck.

The real motherf***** is Moscow Mitch. Gamed the judicial system, aides Russia, obstructing legislation on elections security and gun control as senate majority leader.

Looks like the Dem game plan is run the clock, aim to beat Trump in an election, let his negatives fester. 14 months until Nov. 2020. Hard to trust the Dem's on strategy but this might do the least damage. Still have to prosecute Trump afterwards.
One thought floated yesterday is the opposite of what I had previously heard.
Instead of Nancy running out the clock on impeachment and not bringing it to "house trial" before November - because Dems fear that if it goes to the Senate and they clearly will not impeach then Trump can declare innocence and get an election day boost - the thought is that Nancy may simply be DELAYING impeachment so that all the bad hearings happen in Sept/Oct before the Nov vote. Impeach him and send it right to the Senate the day before election day.

Voters will have to deal with not only all the negative campaigning against him (not to mention the positive hope for a new path with a new candidate), but meanwhile the House will be assailing him with negative hearings and information releases. Double Whammy.
bearister
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"One of President Trump's under-appreciated re-election assets is something all politicians promise but few do: He has largely done precisely what he promised his base he would do, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes.

Why it matters: In our travels around the country, when we push people on why they're sticking with Trump, this is the #1 reason they cite.
Love him or hate him, Trump fixates on turning campaign promises into reality or at least making the case that he tried:

Conservative Supreme Court justice? Check and double-check.
Tax cuts? Check, although they were heavily weighted toward corporations rather than the middle class.
Gut regulations, especially from the Obama era? Check.
Crack down on immigration? Even this is a check, despite his failure to build a wall.
Tariffs on China? Check.
Declaring China a currency manipulator? Check.
Withdrawing from Paris climate agreement? Check.
Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal? Check.
Withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the giant Pacific Rim trade deal? Check.
Renegotiating NAFTA? Check. (Pending congressional approval.)


Then there are the huge promises Trump hasn't kept:

He promised in a 2016 interview, with the WashPost's Bob Woodward and Robert Costa, to wipe out the national debt in eight years. Instead, he's increased the deficit and inflated the debt by trillions.
He promised to build "a great wall," but inflates the mileage he claims by mixing replacement projects with new construction.
He promised Mexico would pay, but of course it hasn't.
He promised to repeal the Affordable Care Act and give amazing health care to everyone. Failed on both scores.
He promised to reverse trade deficits. Instead, the U.S. trade deficit with Europe has grown.
Trump, who yesterday called Afghanistan "the Harvard University of terrorism," had pushed to end America's longest war. But he hasn't withdrawn all U.S. troops, and said: "[W]e'll always have somebody there."
Other areas where reality has fallen short: infrastructure ("We will build gleaming new roads, bridges, highways, railways and waterways all across our land") and ending the opioid crisis.
Perhaps Trump's most absurd broken promise: to drain the swamp. Instead, he brought us Scott Pruitt and friends.
Watch for ... Trump to argue that unfulfilled promises are the fault of others." Axios
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Another Bear
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concordtom said:

Another Bear said:

sycasey said:

Another Bear said:

No one thought things could get worse than Dubya and yet they did.

No one thought Trump would get this far or go this far but he has.

No one figured he'd tell over 10 lies per day.

No one figured he loaded up the swamp with bigger looters.

Given all this and he has no real strategy, is incompetent and literally has Nazis working for him...I'm certain he's going to ratchet the whole chaos machine up because he doesn't have anything else. He's going to spew the hate like Putin at a pee party. He has also started attacking Fox News...so buckle up is all I can say.


Oh, I definitely figured Trump would do all that when he was in office. And given the way the GOP behaved during the Obama years, I knew they could do worse than Dubya.
Yeah okay on Trump's crap. Frankly while horrible, his incompetence has kept his reign of errors from being much worse. Still bad but imagine if he were competent. That's dumb luck.

The real motherf***** is Moscow Mitch. Gamed the judicial system, aides Russia, obstructing legislation on elections security and gun control as senate majority leader.

Looks like the Dem game plan is run the clock, aim to beat Trump in an election, let his negatives fester. 14 months until Nov. 2020. Hard to trust the Dem's on strategy but this might do the least damage. Still have to prosecute Trump afterwards.
One thought floated yesterday is the opposite of what I had previously heard.
Instead of Nancy running out the clock on impeachment and not bringing it to "house trial" before November - because Dems fear that if it goes to the Senate and they clearly will not impeach then Trump can declare innocence and get an election day boost - the thought is that Nancy may simply be DELAYING impeachment so that all the bad hearings happen in Sept/Oct before the Nov vote. Impeach him and send it right to the Senate the day before election day.

Voters will have to deal with not only all the negative campaigning against him (not to mention the positive hope for a new path with a new candidate), but meanwhile the House will be assailing him with negative hearings and information releases. Double Whammy.
I can see that move and it makes sense: force the GOP senate and Moscow Mitch to react, make a move, take a stand. (BTW, the senate is up for grabs...Dems think they can take it.). Trump is Mr. Chaos but impeachment would yank his control of the daily media narrative. The media would dive head first into it, looking to max coverage and profits. On the defensive and no control of the media...Trump would be at a disadvantage.
bearister
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"The U.S. despite mountains of evidence about Russia's interference in the last election, and the likelihood of a repeat in 2020 is no better prepared to defend itself now than it was three years ago, Axios Future editor Steve LeVine writes.

When it comes to its rivals and enemies, Moscow's objective often is to create chaos, incapacitating the other power's threat to Russia's aims.
To get there, the weapon of choice is usually the exploitation of existing divisions in the other society.
That's where the U.S. made itself a sitting duck in 2016.

And Americans are once again playing into Russia's hands: Politically, socially and culturally, we suspect each other's motives and plain sanity.
What's happening: President Trump and Republican leaders at the federal and state levels have stifled efforts to combat a redux of the Russian campaign.

With defenses down, Trump appears especially prepared to stoke raw political, societal and social emotions.
"If Putin is going to throw the match of chaos, he needs kindling," says Richard Fontaine, CEO at the Center for a New American Security." Axios

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okaydo
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Anarchistbear
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okaydo said:




Obviously he sees that as his path to the White House since he's the VP nominee in his dementia
going4roses
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The Democratic Party has thrown in the towel

GBear4Life
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Come on folks, these OT threads are all 'scare tactics'.

The unfortunate reality I think is that a early 2020 recession is the best thing that could happen for Dems in the election. The flyover every-man crew are not going to care as much about social justice warriors and pandering to illegals if they're losing jobs and net worth is decreasing.
 
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