sycasey said:

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So much for the party of personal responsibility.

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I just want to point out that they are trying to portray Joe Biden as liberal extremism.

Basically if the Democrats ran Barry Goldwater's ghost, they'd scream socialist, communist, liberal extremism. You can't yell the same thing every time and have it stick.

Unit2Sucks said:

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Turnout has been massive in early voting which is why you are seeing so many of the Trumpers freaking out lately. They are running out of ways to suppress the vote and the returns so far bode terribly for Trump. We are already at 71% of the turnout in Texas from 2016. Florida is at 50%. NC at 57%. It's going to be near impossible for election day shenanigans to work.

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Maybe making it so obvious you're trying to prevent people from voting makes people want to say "F you."

The missed opportunities for 2020 and beyond - Axios


https://www.axios.com/what-matters-2020-trump-biden-98c6b906-0067-4038-bc2a-56e390c623cc.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

Well, then I guess this just sank to the 2nd best news I saw today:

*It is one thing to put The Taint on your supporters, but when you sling it on your propaganda arm, that is diabolical.

okaydo said:

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Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Unit2Sucks said:

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dajo9 said:

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Tennessee and Indiana are the largest safe red states in Presidential voting (11 electoral college votes). That isn't going to get it done.

Democrats have 7 safe states of equal or bigger size in electoral college votes. There are also 8 competitive states of equal or bigger size. 3 are battleground rust belt states (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan). There is also Florida. And 4 are trending Democratic.
Texas
Arizona
Georgia
North Carolina

2024 will be even worse for Republicans than 2020.

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I somewhat disagree. The democratic party has obviously leaned right to compete with the republican party over the last few decades and I think you are about to see the opposite. Republicans will get rolled if they continue with their anti-American culture war. It's obviously only working for a very small portion of the population. I would expect the republican party in 2024 to be much less extremist, less xenophobic and far more conciliatory. It will look a lot like the moderate wing of the democratic party.

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I don't think the Democratic Party has leaned right over the last few decades. I think there were some moderate Democrats like Clinton and Biden, but I think the trend has been to accommodate more of the progressive wings. Things that would have been viewed as whacky by moderate Democrats are starting to leak into the commonly accepted platform. The same obviously happened with the Republican party, turning off people like me. And the ruling party, whether local or national, will have to account for actual results instead of blaming the other side or platitudes.

I think what happens is that a significant portion (I would say a majority) of the Americans raise families, go to work, go to Church/temple/mosque, hang out with their friends, and help their communities. They don't change much year over year. They don't go to the extreme on either side, but care about the economy, their kids' future, being decent, feeling safe, believing in hard work, etc. However, the politicians, when the tide shifts, will take that as a mandate by America (when it's really their extreme base and their victory really a rejection of the extremism of the other side) to make significant changes to fight philosophical wars and culture wars. Most of the Americans who are just living normal lives will be repelled by the shift and there will eventually be a big swing the other way. And it will repeat itself over and over again.

calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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dajo9 said:

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Tennessee and Indiana are the largest safe red states in Presidential voting (11 electoral college votes). That isn't going to get it done.

Democrats have 7 safe states of equal or bigger size in electoral college votes. There are also 8 competitive states of equal or bigger size. 3 are battleground rust belt states (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan). There is also Florida. And 4 are trending Democratic.
Texas
Arizona
Georgia
North Carolina

2024 will be even worse for Republicans than 2020.

---

I somewhat disagree. The democratic party has obviously leaned right to compete with the republican party over the last few decades and I think you are about to see the opposite. Republicans will get rolled if they continue with their anti-American culture war. It's obviously only working for a very small portion of the population. I would expect the republican party in 2024 to be much less extremist, less xenophobic and far more conciliatory. It will look a lot like the moderate wing of the democratic party.

---

I don't think the Democratic Party has leaned right over the last few decades. I think there were some moderate Democrats like Clinton and Biden, but I think the trend has been to accommodate more of the progressive wings. Things that would have been viewed as whacky by moderate Democrats are starting to leak into the commonly accepted platform. The same obviously happened with the Republican party, turning off people like me. And the ruling party, whether local or national, will have to account for actual results instead of blaming the other side or platitudes.

I think what happens is that a significant portion (I would say a majority) of the Americans raise families, go to work, go to Church/temple/mosque, hang out with their friends, and help their communities. They don't change much year over year. They don't go to the extreme on either side, but care about the economy, their kids' future, being decent, feeling safe, believing in hard work, etc. However, the politicians, when the tide shifts, will take that as a mandate by America (when it's really their extreme base and their victory really a rejection of the extremism of the other side) to make significant changes to fight philosophical wars and culture wars. Most of the Americans who are just living normal lives will be repelled by the shift and there will eventually be a big swing the other way. And it will repeat itself over and over again.

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I agree with most of what you say but I think you are placing far more value on the powerless progressives in the democratic caucus. Obama was fairly moderate - look how long it took him to get behind marriage freedom. Hard to argue that Clinton was a radical. What are the most progressive achievements of the democratic party over the last 30 years? Other than marriage freedom and the ACA, I can't think of much and I don't really feel like those are all that progressive. Not having them in 2020 would be regressive as we are likely about to find out when SCOTUS with ACB strikes down Obamacare.

As for philosophical and culture wars, it sure seems like a lot of Americans are up for it. Without culture warriors, Trump wouldn't have any supporters. There are plenty on both sides, but at least when/if Biden wins we will be back to having a president with broad based support who actually believes in some of the values that we would both hope would be common to all.

Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Tennessee and Indiana are the largest safe red states in Presidential voting (11 electoral college votes). That isn't going to get it done.

Democrats have 7 safe states of equal or bigger size in electoral college votes. There are also 8 competitive states of equal or bigger size. 3 are battleground rust belt states (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan). There is also Florida. And 4 are trending Democratic.
Texas
Arizona
Georgia
North Carolina

2024 will be even worse for Republicans than 2020.

---

I somewhat disagree. The democratic party has obviously leaned right to compete with the republican party over the last few decades and I think you are about to see the opposite. Republicans will get rolled if they continue with their anti-American culture war. It's obviously only working for a very small portion of the population. I would expect the republican party in 2024 to be much less extremist, less xenophobic and far more conciliatory. It will look a lot like the moderate wing of the democratic party.

---

I don't think the Democratic Party has leaned right over the last few decades. I think there were some moderate Democrats like Clinton and Biden, but I think the trend has been to accommodate more of the progressive wings. Things that would have been viewed as whacky by moderate Democrats are starting to leak into the commonly accepted platform. The same obviously happened with the Republican party, turning off people like me. And the ruling party, whether local or national, will have to account for actual results instead of blaming the other side or platitudes.

I think what happens is that a significant portion (I would say a majority) of the Americans raise families, go to work, go to Church/temple/mosque, hang out with their friends, and help their communities. They don't change much year over year. They don't go to the extreme on either side, but care about the economy, their kids' future, being decent, feeling safe, believing in hard work, etc. However, the politicians, when the tide shifts, will take that as a mandate by America (when it's really their extreme base and their victory really a rejection of the extremism of the other side) to make significant changes to fight philosophical wars and culture wars. Most of the Americans who are just living normal lives will be repelled by the shift and there will eventually be a big swing the other way. And it will repeat itself over and over again.

---

As for philosophical and culture wars, it sure seems like a lot of Americans are up for it. Without culture warriors, Trump wouldn't have any supporters. There are plenty on both sides, but at least when/if Biden wins we will be back to having a president with broad based support who actually believes in some of the values that we would both hope would be common to all.

---

I hope you are wrong on Americans wanting to fight culture wars. I am rooting for Biden/Harris to try to unify and not cater to extremes on the left or view the other side (or react) as if the right is comprised solely of the opposite extremes. I think it will be difficult with all of the purity tests and blind allegiance demands, but I think he has the experience to stand up for what he believes is right and decent.

Yogi will be boiling a rabbit after viewing that one.

The swing states where the coronavirus could most impact the 2020 election - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-2020-election-senate-59e4f2bb-93e2-4ebb-84ad-4fe3aed6e043.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

tRump needs four more years of insider trading gains from stock market manipulation, pay for play revenue from his hotels, under the table broker fees on arms sales, and secret profits from Covid treatment pharmaceuticals in order to get flush. He can't leave the outcome of the election to mere chance.

Trump's $1.1BILLION debt: Huge sums linked to his real estate



https://mol.im/a/8883501

bearister said:

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Yogi will be boiling a rabbit after viewing that one.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/NastySparklingKiskadee-size_restricted.gif

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It was a good ad (for them) but it also demonstrates how vacuous the Biden "agenda" is. His whole campaign is "I'm a decent guy" (he's not), and "I'm not Trump" (no shyt).

Eugene Debs said:

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bearister said:

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Yogi will be boiling a rabbit after viewing that one.

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It was a good ad (for them) but it also demonstrates how vacuous the Biden "agenda" is. His whole campaign is "I'm a decent guy" (he's not), and "I'm not Trump" (no shyt).

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You are absolutely correct. It looks like it will prove to be a winning strategy, but we'll never know how another candidate might have fared.

I yearn to be able to hear how Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren (sorry, not trying to yank your chain again on that) or even an Andrew Yang would've done in a debate against Trump. Instead, we're left just hoping to God that the Dem candidate doesn't stumble over his words in a debate.

Big C said:

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Eugene Debs said:

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bearister said:

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Yogi will be boiling a rabbit after viewing that one.

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It was a good ad (for them) but it also demonstrates how vacuous the Biden "agenda" is. His whole campaign is "I'm a decent guy" (he's not), and "I'm not Trump" (no shyt).

---

You are absolutely correct. It looks like it will prove to be a winning strategy, but we'll never know how another candidate might have fared.

I yearn to be able to hear how Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren (sorry, not trying to yank your chain again on that) or even an Andrew Yang would've done in a debate against Trump. Instead, we're left just hoping to God that the Dem candidate doesn't stumble over his words in a debate.

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I mean, Biden has policy positions, and you can read about them if you want.

It's just that this election battle isn't being waged on those grounds, and he probably correctly predicted that it wouldn't be.

" The White House science office listed "ending the COVID-19 pandemic" as the top accomplishment of President Trump's first term, even as the U.S. has set records for new daily infections and numerous hospitals across the country are stretched to their breaking points."




White House science office says Trump ended COVID-19 pandemic as US hits record cases | TheHill


https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/523013-white-house-science-office-says-trump-ended-covid-pandemic-as-us-hits

MAGA in California.

" Republicans, win or lose next week, face a big and growing math problem.

The state of play: They're relying almost exclusively on a shrinking demographic (white men), living in shrinking areas (small, rural towns), creating a reliance on people with shrinking incomes (white workers without college degrees) to survive.

Why it matters: You can't win elections without diversity, bigger population centers and sufficient money."




The GOP's monstrous math problem - Axios


https://www.axios.com/republican-voters-rural-suburbs-future-trump-38bd5273-7584-4d69-834d-dc4d9e3c8ac8.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

bearister said:

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" The White House science office listed "ending the COVID-19 pandemic" as the top accomplishment of President Trump's first term, even as the U.S. has set records for new daily infections and numerous hospitals across the country are stretched to their breaking points."




White House science office says Trump ended COVID-19 pandemic as US hits record cases | TheHill


https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/523013-white-house-science-office-says-trump-ended-covid-pandemic-as-us-hits

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Trump said we're almost home. "We're rounding 6th base", said the president.

bearister said:

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" Republicans, win or lose next week, face a big and growing math problem.

The state of play: They're relying almost exclusively on a shrinking demographic (white men), living in shrinking areas (small, rural towns), creating a reliance on people with shrinking incomes (white workers without college degrees) to survive.

Why it matters: You can't win elections without diversity, bigger population centers and sufficient money."




The GOP's monstrous math problem - Axios


https://www.axios.com/republican-voters-rural-suburbs-future-trump-38bd5273-7584-4d69-834d-dc4d9e3c8ac8.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

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Good riddance. They're un American, anti democratic slime.

BearChemist said:

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These Republican polls (Trafalgar, Rasmussen, etc.) are always wrong, until Republicans outperform and they are right. I look at them as best case scenario for Republicans. Best case scenario for them says Trump can win. Got to vote.

dajo9 said:

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BearChemist said:

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These Republican polls (Trafalgar, Rasmussen, etc.) are always wrong, until Republicans outperform and they are right. I look at them as best case scenario for Republicans. Best case scenario for them says Trump can win. Got to vote.

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This is the thing with polling. You have to make some assumptions about who is going to turnout and what the demographics of the voter base are going to be. Then you need to adjust your numbers accordingly. Either actively try and get responses that match the demographics before the fact or weight the demographics after the fact. So last time in some states, pollsters did not anticipate a surge in non college educated voters. So they adjust for that. (there is also the fact that 1. Polls were not very far off; and 2. The bigger issue was not that polls were wrong. I was that there were a higher number of undecideds and the undecideds broke for Trump. Most of the "issue" with polling was not that the polls inaccurately reflected the state of the race. If you remove the late deciding votes from the count, most of the polls were pretty close. The problem was the interpretation of the polls.)

Here is the thing with Trafalgar. Their position is that it doesn't matter how much you get the demographics correct. That Never Trumpers within those demographics are dying to answer the polls, and Trump supporters are shy. There is no evidence for that and there are ways for good pollsters to counter that phenomenon. But basically, they are treating Trump voter vs. non Trump voter as a demographic and just adjusting their numbers to represent more Trump voters. That is not scientific polling. That is self fulfilling prophecy.

People forget that these same pollsters did the same thing in 2012 and they were crowing about the big surprise victory that was coming for Romney. It turned out the polls were wrong in the other direction, significantly moreso than in 2016.

They may end up being right, but if they are right, it is for the wrong reasons.

bearister said:

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Yogi will be boiling a rabbit after viewing that one.

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couple things i learned today..
1) "Don't call PETA just yet, though: The bunny was also very much dead before the Fatal Attraction crew dropped it in the pot. Per an excerpt from the book obtained by The Hollywood Reporter, the Fatal Attraction crew bought an IRL dead bunny from a butcher shop in order to give the scene an extra oomph "

2) IRL --> in real life

'We couldn't stand it any more': why disaffection with Devin Nunes is growing among his constituents


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/28/devin-nunes-california-congress-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other