2020 Election - Catch-all Thread

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B.A. Bearacus
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Previous Briscoe Cain tweet deleted (Twitter took down because it was a threat of violence). Beto screen captured.


bearister
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dajo9
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bearister said:





I don't think Biden wants to be VP again
An old white dude
Another Bear
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Looking more and more like it's Elizabeth Warren. She's getting establishment backing and she has a anti-corruption plan.
Quote:

Elizabeth Warren picks up key endorsement

WASHINGTON (AP) The progressive Working Families Party is endorsing Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren's presidential bid. The party endorsed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders last presidential cycle.

The decision by the labor-aligned party to back Warren over Sanders comes as most national polls show a top-tier of Democratic candidates that includes former Vice President Joe Biden as well as Sanders and Warren.
[url=https://www.vox.com/2019/9/16/20867216/elizabeth-warren-anti-corruption-bill][/url]
Quote:

Elizabeth Warren's first priority as president: ending government corruption
[url=https://www.vox.com/2019/9/16/20867216/elizabeth-warren-anti-corruption-bill][/url]
Warren's bold plan to crack down on corruption in Washington, explained.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) just previewed the first major piece of legislation she'd try to pass through Congress if elected president: a vast anti-corruption package to crack down on the entrenched culture of lobbying in Washington, DC.

Warren's plan, released Monday morning, is an update of a bill she released back in August 2018, well before she announced her campaign for president. And she's been clear it would be the first major legislative priority of a Warren administration. Warren believes the flow of money in politics has stalled progress on a number of other issues, including gun violence, climate change, and the rising cost of health care. Stamping money out of politics goes to the root of these issues, she says.



BearNIt
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Per Politico Poll
Biden: 32%
Warren: 18%
Sanders: 20%

Per NBC News/Wall Street Jnl Poll:
Biden: 31%
Warren: 25%
Sanders: 14%

Looks like this could be a two person race for the Dems nomination as Sanders will not be able to move to the middle and pick up moderates.

Midwest sensibilities on guns, immigration, and healthcare are the key to winning the General Election.

Will Warren be able to move to the middle if she is the nominee and pick up moderates and independents that the Dems will need to beat Trump?

Will Biden be able to get progressives excited and get them to turn out for the General Election which the Dems will need to win the election and beat Trump?

Against Trump in the General Election
Biden is +28
Warren is +22
Sanders +25
Harris +22
OdontoBear66
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BearNIt said:

Per Politico Poll
Biden: 32%
Warren: 18%
Sanders: 20%

Per NBC News/Wall Street Jnl Poll:
Biden: 31%
Warren: 25%
Sanders: 14%

Looks like this could be a two person race for the Dems nomination as Sanders will not be able to move to the middle and pick up moderates.

Midwest sensibilities on guns, immigration, and healthcare are the key to winning the General Election.

Will Warren be able to move to the middle if she is the nominee and pick up moderates and independents that the Dems will need to beat Trump?

Will Biden be able to get progressives excited and get them to turn out for the General Election which the Dems will need to win the election and beat Trump?

Against Trump in the General Election
Biden is +28
Warren is +22
Sanders +25
Harris +22
Please give some insight as to how Warren/Sanders play in Mich/Wisc/ Penn/ North Carolina/Iowa? Those +22s and +25s look pretty big to me.

And thank goodness we are a "Democratic Republic" with an Electoral College to protect the minority (wait isn't that a Dem job?)
sycasey
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OdontoBear66 said:

BearNIt said:

Per Politico Poll
Biden: 32%
Warren: 18%
Sanders: 20%

Per NBC News/Wall Street Jnl Poll:
Biden: 31%
Warren: 25%
Sanders: 14%

Looks like this could be a two person race for the Dems nomination as Sanders will not be able to move to the middle and pick up moderates.

Midwest sensibilities on guns, immigration, and healthcare are the key to winning the General Election.

Will Warren be able to move to the middle if she is the nominee and pick up moderates and independents that the Dems will need to beat Trump?

Will Biden be able to get progressives excited and get them to turn out for the General Election which the Dems will need to win the election and beat Trump?

Against Trump in the General Election
Biden is +28
Warren is +22
Sanders +25
Harris +22
Please give some insight as to how Warren/Sanders play in Mich/Wisc/ Penn/ North Carolina/Iowa? Those +22s and +25s look pretty big to me.

And thank goodness we are a "Democratic Republic" with an Electoral College to protect the minority (wait isn't that a Dem job?)

Pretty sure those +20ish numbers are California only.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/
BearNIt
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sycasey said:

OdontoBear66 said:

BearNIt said:

Per Politico Poll
Biden: 32%
Warren: 18%
Sanders: 20%

Per NBC News/Wall Street Jnl Poll:
Biden: 31%
Warren: 25%
Sanders: 14%

Looks like this could be a two person race for the Dems nomination as Sanders will not be able to move to the middle and pick up moderates.

Midwest sensibilities on guns, immigration, and healthcare are the key to winning the General Election.

Will Warren be able to move to the middle if she is the nominee and pick up moderates and independents that the Dems will need to beat Trump?

Will Biden be able to get progressives excited and get them to turn out for the General Election which the Dems will need to win the election and beat Trump?

Against Trump in the General Election
Biden is +28
Warren is +22
Sanders +25
Harris +22
Please give some insight as to how Warren/Sanders play in Mich/Wisc/ Penn/ North Carolina/Iowa? Those +22s and +25s look pretty big to me.

And thank goodness we are a "Democratic Republic" with an Electoral College to protect the minority (wait isn't that a Dem job?)

Pretty sure those +20ish numbers are California only.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/
I stand corrected, my mistake they are California numbers and not the General Election numbers.

Michigan:
* vs Trump
Biden +10
Sanders +7
Harris +2.7
Warren +4

North Carolina
* vs Trump
Biden +7.6
Sanders +4.4
Harris -1.3
Warren -0.3

Pennsylvania
* vs Trump
Biden +10.5
Sanders +8.5
Harris +1.5
Warren +3.5

Wisconsin
* vs Trump
Biden +8.5
Sanders +4
Harris Tie
Warren +2
Anarchistbear
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A poll of California voters has Kamala Harris in fifth place behind Biden, Sanders, Warren and- lol -Yang.
dajo9
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Surprised that Harris doesn't poll better. Word must have got out that wifeisafurd likes her.
An old white dude
sycasey
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dajo9 said:

Surprised that Harris doesn't poll better. Word must have got out that wifeisafurd likes her.
Her campaign just hasn't been that good. No clear narrative.
Another Bear
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Harris presents a sort of conflicted candidate: former CA top cop AG and some progressive positions like medicare for all. She's part of the Brown-Burton machine, which is old school liberal Democrat coalition with business/labor. That's how the Burtons and Brown ran S.F., horse trading and willing to play ball if everyone gets something. The problem is things have shifted way right and old alliances have changed. Thus it's difficult to figure out where Harris stands. Bernie and Warren have stolen a little thunder from Harris on healthcare...so where does that leave her? Hard to say and that's the problem.

Also Harris never had to run a city like SF, so she's never had to deal with potholes, angry citizens and domestic issues. So voters can't latch onto that. Her senate record is too new as well.
OdontoBear66
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sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

Surprised that Harris doesn't poll better. Word must have got out that wifeisafurd likes her.
Her campaign just hasn't been that good. No clear narrative.
Might be that a lot of Dems are seeing the prosecutor in the new progressive. Smell test.
sycasey
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OdontoBear66 said:

sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

Surprised that Harris doesn't poll better. Word must have got out that wifeisafurd likes her.
Her campaign just hasn't been that good. No clear narrative.
Might be that a lot of Dems are seeing the prosecutor in the new progressive. Smell test.
That's definitely an issue for her, but it's more in what you do with it. You could lean into it and run on your record as a prosecutor, say you're going to apply the same pressure to Trump and the Republicans (there are still plenty of moderate Dems who aren't worried about the "Kamala is a cop" stuff). Or you address it and say you've changed and move on to your new narrative. I think the issue is that it's not clear which one Harris is doing.

Warren had a big problem with the Pocahontas stuff early on, but she's done a good job of addressing it and moving on to her usual points.
OaktownBear
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sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

Surprised that Harris doesn't poll better. Word must have got out that wifeisafurd likes her.
Her campaign just hasn't been that good. No clear narrative.
I saw an analysis that said a lot of her problem is that she doesn't have a specific lane. She is basically everybody's second choice.

Harris' best hope is that Biden gets shredded at some point before the primaries start. Right now the African American vote is going strongly to Biden because they want to win and they think he is the best chance. If their confidence in him falters, polling indicates they are unlikely to jump to Warren or Sanders. Harris is their second choice.
BearsWiin
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My analysis is that people don't know what she really believes in, and suspect that she doesn't either. Her first town hall was peppered with queries to which she answered "We can have that conversation" as if she hadn't fleshed out what her position was on pretty standard topics, and was afraid to think on her feet and speak to her core beliefs. In this election cycle passion and authenticity are going to be importanter than they usually are, and she doesn't show or inspire much passion and doesn't come across as authentic.
sycasey
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BearsWiin said:

In this election cycle passion and authenticity are going to be importanter than they usually are, and she doesn't show or inspire much passion and doesn't come across as authentic.
And really, those things are usually pretty important anyway.
BearsWiin
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Yes, but in the last presidential election cycle we had Passion and Authenticity lose out in the Dem nomination process to Yeah OK She's Qualified and It's Her Turn.
sycasey
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BearsWiin said:

Yes, but in the last presidential election cycle we had Passion and Authenticity lose out in the Dem nomination process to Yeah OK She's Qualified and It's Her Turn.

Considering how little Bernie started with, his results were way above what you'd expect though.
bearister
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https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-poll-shows-trump-under-40-vs-biden-sanders-warren-and-harris

"A new Fox News poll shows 50 percent of voters choosing Joe Biden over President Trump in 2020, with the president clinching less than 40 percent support against four Democratic challengers.When matched up against Biden, only 38 percent of voters said they'd vote for Trump over the former vice president."
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OdontoBear66
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Biden is a maybe. A real maybe. The rest we shall see
GBear4Life
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in the voting booth people tend to vote slightly right of wherever they actually stand politically/ideologically etc. Drastic change scares most people. That's why I'm skeptical of Warren and Bernie winning a general. Dem nominee will win if they just vow to lower taxes on the middle class and pay for social programs like health care by taxing the uber-rich and refrain from abolishing of private insurance, and the identity stuff including immigration. Even if that's what they want to actually do, they should lie.
Anarchistbear
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Besides not being up for the job Harris has no constituency. She polls well with white educated professionals ( this board) but poorly with African Americans ( fourth after Biden, Sanders and Warren), poorly with Hispanics ( third after Sanders and Biden) and poorly with non college whites ( fourth)

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/11/rel10b.-.2020.pdf
Professor Turgeson Bear
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sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

Surprised that Harris doesn't poll better. Word must have got out that wifeisafurd likes her.
Her campaign just hasn't been that good. No clear narrative.
How do you build a clear narrative for someone who's only been on the national stage since 2016? Nobody outside of California knows who she is. I don't even think a large amount of people in California know what she stands for. Probably she had motives for entering the race that have zero to do with actually winning a presidential race (perhaps establishing a narrative for her to get the VP nomination, but she certainly won't get that from Biden LOL) as some do, but that campaign is DOA for this election.
sycasey
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Professor Turgeson Bear said:

sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

Surprised that Harris doesn't poll better. Word must have got out that wifeisafurd likes her.
Her campaign just hasn't been that good. No clear narrative.
How do you build a clear narrative for someone who's only been on the national stage since 2016? Nobody outside of California knows who she is. I don't even think a large amount of people in California know what she stands for. Probably she had motives for entering the race that have zero to do with actually winning a presidential race (perhaps establishing a narrative for her to get the VP nomination, but she certainly won't get that from Biden LOL) as some do, but that campaign is DOA for this election.

Obama and Bill Clinton were not widely known until they ran for Prez the first time. It's totally possible to build a narrative if you're good at it.
GBear4Life
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Anarchistbear said:

Besides not being up for the job Harris has no constituency. She polls well with white educated professionals ( this board) but poorly with African Americans ( fourth after Biden, Sanders and Warren), poorly with Hispanics ( third after Sanders and Biden) and poorly with non college whites ( fourth)

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/11/rel10b.-.2020.pdf
Interesting that a black woman doesn't poll well with blacks.
Another Bear
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From the LA Times and Barrons. If Wall Street is worried about LIz Warren, she has my vote. And no Ukraine baggage.

Column: What's behind Elizabeth Warren's rise? It's the logic, stupid

Wall Street Is Worried About Elizabeth Warren. It's Right to Take Her Seriously.
BearNIt
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GBear4Life said:

Anarchistbear said:

Besides not being up for the job Harris has no constituency. She polls well with white educated professionals ( this board) but poorly with African Americans ( fourth after Biden, Sanders and Warren), poorly with Hispanics ( third after Sanders and Biden) and poorly with non college whites ( fourth)

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/11/rel10b.-.2020.pdf
Interesting that a black woman doesn't poll well with blacks.
Not really, think pragmatism.
sycasey
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Obama didn't have great polling numbers with black voters until he started winning. Then he got tons of support from them.
bearister
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B.A. Bearacus
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At this point, there are only two candidates you could conceivably switch over to as your personal front runner: Biden or Warren. No one will switch to Sanders or any other candidate if that candidate isn't their current top choice.


Another Bear
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Biden is going to get dragged by Trump on the Ukraine stuff...and god bless Joe Biden, he'll grab onto Trump by the hunches and bring the Orange Turd down too...just because.

I don't think Trump has anything on Warren and she can beat Trump. Trump's Pocahontas went soft after she played through. His couple of weeks of rabid racism didn't play well in America, so he has to dial it back.
BearNIt
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sycasey said:

Obama didn't have great polling numbers with black voters until he started winning. Then he got tons of support from them.
Exactly, once he showed he could win a primary he got the support.

As an aside, Why am I seeing all the NRA advertisement on this website?
bearister
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How Trump could lose the popular vote again and hold the White House

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/sep/22/donald-trump-popular-vote-electoral-college-2020?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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bearister
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It's Time for Biden to Take Control of the Narrative - The Bulwark


https://thebulwark.com/its-time-for-biden-to-take-control-of-the-narrative/
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