OT: Trump/Russians/Robert Mueller

BearChemist
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Unit2Sucks
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Meanwhile, Reality Winner (who sounds like a Triple Crown Winner but is the name of a real live person) was sentenced to 5 years in prison for leaking a classified government report on the 2016 Russia hacking. No doubt the motive was because of the adamant denials of the hacking from "a soulless ginger orangutan" (her words, not mine).

I don't condone leaking classified information but do wonder what would have happened had she properly redacted the classified portions of the report out. My sense is that she wouldn't be serving jail time but would have still served the goal she was hoping to achieve.

Not surprised that Trump hasn't tweeted about how unfair it is that she's serving 5 years in jail but I guess he's busy claiming that campaign finance laws don't really matter.
bearister
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tRump: "Why is it every time I get into trouble it involves Pecker?"
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golden sloth
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Well, congress finally gets bipartisan support on a bill to help protect the 2018 election:
Quote:


A Republican-led, Democrat-supported bill to safeguard US elections from foreign interference is stuck in the bowels of Congress. There's a simple reason why: The White House doesn't want it to pass.
The Secure Elections Act, which Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) introduced, would have made significant changes to the way states protect their voting systems in three significant ways. It proposes to:

  • Give security clearances to the top election official in all 50 states so they can follow real-time threats to their voting systems.
  • Establish a formal channel among the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), other government agencies, and states to share information on the security of each state's election.
  • Ensure a state conducts an audit after any federal election, including incentivizing efforts to purchase electronic voting machines that retain a paper record of each ballot.

That last part is crucial, as it would help states keep an accurate vote count if cyberattackers tried to manipulate or interfere with a final, electronic-only report.

https://www.vox.com/2018/8/23/17774296/2018-election-security-cyberattacks-white-house-russia-iran

Trump doesn't want fair elections because he knows he can't win them, so he does what he can to allow foreign interference. Its interesting he is citing federal government overreach as a reason, as the majority of state representatives wanted this. I would really love for Trump to be convicted of treason and put to death at the end of all of this.
BearChemist
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golden sloth said:

Well, congress finally gets bipartisan support on a bill to help protect the 2018 election:
Quote:


A Republican-led, Democrat-supported bill to safeguard US elections from foreign interference is stuck in the bowels of Congress. There's a simple reason why: The White House doesn't want it to pass.
The Secure Elections Act, which Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) introduced, would have made significant changes to the way states protect their voting systems in three significant ways. It proposes to:

  • Give security clearances to the top election official in all 50 states so they can follow real-time threats to their voting systems.
  • Establish a formal channel among the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), other government agencies, and states to share information on the security of each state's election.
  • Ensure a state conducts an audit after any federal election, including incentivizing efforts to purchase electronic voting machines that retain a paper record of each ballot.

That last part is crucial, as it would help states keep an accurate vote count if cyberattackers tried to manipulate or interfere with a final, electronic-only report.

https://www.vox.com/2018/8/23/17774296/2018-election-security-cyberattacks-white-house-russia-iran

Trump doesn't want fair elections because he knows he can't win them, so he does what he can to allow foreign interference. Its interesting he is citing federal government overreach as a reason, as the majority of state representatives wanted this. I would really love for Trump to be convicted of treason and put to death at the end of all of this.
Not so fast.

golden sloth
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And another Trumper gets immunity, this time its the finance boss for the Trump Organization:


Quote:

The Trump Organization's finance boss, Allen Weisselberg, has reportedly been granted legal immunity in the probe into Michael Cohen.
He was summoned to testify earlier this year in the investigation into Cohen, Donald Trump's longtime former lawyer, US media report.
Cohen pleaded guilty on Tuesday to handling hush money for Mr Trump in violation of campaign finance laws.
Mr Weisselberg, Chief Financial Officer, is the latest to get immunity.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45301884

Seems like everyone around Trump is getting immunity, and momentum is certainly against him. I would say to brace yourself for the White House yelling about how terrible immigrants are, how great the economy is, or reigniting threats against Iran or North Korea.
Another Bear
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Getting Weisselberg is a big deal...he literally has all the receipts. If the main mantra is "follow the money", then this looks absolutely YUUUUGE. You know, only the best people!

I don't know if the following is true but it sort of make sense if the guy with all the receipts becomes the stool pigeon...it might be over.

Donald Trump Will Resign Now That Accountant Alan Weisselberg Has 'Flipped,' Says 'Art Of The Deal' Co-Writer
bearister
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I'm thinking tRump would may prefer to end his 1000 Year Reich on his own terms rather than in the exercise yard at Leavenworth with tRump Lite and Jared.

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BearChemist
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George Conway strikes again... (Individual-1 most likely refers to the Orange)

Another Bear
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Good read from NYT about Bob Mueller:

What Will Mueller Do? The Answer Might Lie in a By-the-Book Past
Another Bear
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...But wait..there's MORE...

First Manafort and Cohen go down on Tuesday. Then Weiselberg and Pecker get immunity to talk about Trump just to cap off a super shtty week in Trumpland. But now this. Pecker's immunity opens up a bunch of "catch and kill" stories by the National Enquirer, like for the doorman at Trump's residence.

Long story short: the doorman says Trump knocked up his housekeeper just like ARH-nold. Seriously, you can't make this shtt up, there's just too much of it.

Doorman Who Wold Story Trump Love Child Now Free to Talk

EXCLUSIVE: ex-Trump World Tower doorman's "catch-and-kill" contract released
bearister
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Another Bear said:

Good read from NYT about Bob Mueller:

What Will Mueller Do? The Answer Might Lie in a By-the-Book Past


Go Captain Mueller! Semper Fi! Oorah! Captain Mueller will be wearing his Bronze Star (with valor), Purple Heart Medal,
Navy Commendation Medal (2) (with valor), Combat Action Ribbon and South Vietnam Gallantry Cross when he slaps the cuffs on The Bone Spur Kid and perp walks him through the Rose Garden as tRump wails like a banshee and soils himself.

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Another Bear
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I don't know how this works but Manafort is facing up to 80 years from the first trial. Even if he plea bargains a deal, wouldn't he still be serving time for the first trial? Or can he negotiate a blanket deal for all charges if he flips?

Any way, maybe Manafort got the memo about this past week...all the Trump lawyers discourage a pardon even though he wanted to pardon his man Manny.
Another Bear
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mikecohen
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I finally feel like it is now a done deal, and only a question of time before Trump is overthrown; and so the questions in my mind are:

(1) First and Foremost (as the saying goes): What does the whole body politic (or whoever can and/or does muster the power over it) do about the 40,000,000 Trump True Believers, for whom nobody else in either party was either speaking or acting (at least effectively)?; and

(2) Less cosmically: What is the strategy as to Pence? - because my feeling is that

a) Trump, being as truly ignorant as he is, has been, for all practical matters, solely a tool for the 1% who got their tax cut and rape of the environment, and other destructions of meaningful government functions, and

(b) Pence would be no different, except being a different cardboard cutout character front man, while all the above goes on behind the scenes.
Another Bear
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The way to placate and FLIP the 40,000,000,000 Trumpkins is providing government services like ACA, better integration into the new workplace with job training, real education, etc. A massive anti-proverty program that lets everyone in, is how you get the hearts and minds of the 40mil and everyone. Call it the Big Deal, based on an updated New Deal.

re: Pence, he is NOT clean. Manafort picked him for VP and Manafort is in YUUGE trouble. Methinks Trump is simply Act I, with ACT II being Pence, Manafort, the Russians and whatever else is buried. Besides the obvious problems with this, I also don't believe Pence has the teflon shield and will get pummeled for not being elected POTUS. He'll get the Gerald R. Ford treatment or worse. He might not make it.

Vice President Pence Faces Heightened Scrutiny Over His Relationship with Paul Manafort
Quote:

It was Paul Manafort who chose Mike Pence as Donald Trump's vice president.
Quote:

It is possible that, when Mueller concludes his investigation, that both Trump and Pence, amongst others, would be unable to fulfill the office of the Presidency.

It is worth noting that the last Republican president to face impeachment, Richard Nixon, also lost his vice president as the administration became mired in controversy. Vice President Spiro Agnew pled no contest to a charge of tax evasion and resigned on the 10th of October 1973, several months prior to Nixon's own resignation.


mikecohen
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Another Bear said:

The way to placate and FLIP the 40,000,000,000 Trumpkins is providing government services like ACA, better integration into the new workplace with job training, real education, etc. A massive anti-proverty program that lets everyone in, is how you get the hearts and minds of the 40mil and everyone. Call it the Big Deal, based on an updated New Deal.

re: Pence, he is NOT clean. Manafort picked him for VP and Manafort is in YUUGE trouble. Methinks Trump is simply Act I, with ACT II being Pence, Manafort, the Russians and whatever else is buried. Besides the obvious problems with this, I also don't believe Pence has the teflon shield and will get pummeled for not being elected POTUS. He'll get the Gerald R. Ford treatment or worse. He might not make it.

Vice President Pence Faces Heightened Scrutiny Over His Relationship with Paul Manafort
Quote:

It was Paul Manafort who chose Mike Pence as Donald Trump's vice president.
Quote:

It is possible that, when Mueller concludes his investigation, that both Trump and Pence, amongst others, would be unable to fulfill the office of the Presidency.

It is worth noting that the last Republican president to face impeachment, Richard Nixon, also lost his vice president as the administration became mired in controversy. Vice President Spiro Agnew pled no contest to a charge of tax evasion and resigned on the 10th of October 1973, several months prior to Nixon's own resignation.


I heartily agree with your first paragraph; but I say to it: Easier said than done, since the necessity and virtue of those programs for every aspect of American life, INCLUDING The Economy, have been well known and documented for decades but getting any of it passed has been like trying to slide a human body between meshing gears.

In a previous iteration of dialog on this subject, I wound up gleefully fantasizing that, should the Democrats win the House in November and both Trump and Pence get impeached before 2020, then Nancy Pelosi would become President.

But I think that this posssibility is probably uppermost in the minds of the odd coalition of everybody-except-no-matter-what-Trumpers, which coalition is in process of bringing Trump down, but which coalition includes a lot of Republicans and one-percenters who will be fighting to keep in place the right-of-center bent of the federal government that they have created and nurtured for some 50 years now (including a strong rightward gravitational pull against Bill Clinton and Barack Obama); and so, not only do I not see it happening, but I see a lot of laissez faire after Trump goes down, which makes me worry about the continued ripeness of those 40,000,000 No-Matter-What-Trumpers for fascist political activity going forward.
B.A. Bearacus
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Tomorrow is the last weekday before Labor Day. DOJ recommends no major announcements related to the investigation between Labor Day and the November election. Will Mueller feed us with a big enough bombshell tomorrow to keep us fed till November? Chuck Todd thinks so.
Another Bear
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Mueller is a by-the-book kind of guy, I think he plays this straight. Either he drops or he doesn't. If he drops, I think it could be big but I'd never bet on it. Too weird of a situation, too much at stake.

Regardless, I think Trump hit the tipping point with the Helsinki Humiliation, the atempt to take down Mueller with PR and the internal WH discussion and paranoia about impeachment. Everything lines up. It's really a question of what "breaks" or who talks.

Also, Manafort has a trial in Sept. If the trial happens, there will be exposure to Ukrainian and Russian money.

Any way, I'm heading to the mountains over the holiday despite having season tickets for Cal FB. My record of going to the mountains often ends w/ weird news, like Lady Di dying, big airplane crashes, major EQs and a few other major news items.

sonofabear51
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I hope it also includes victories by the Cal football team.
bearister
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"With speculation hot among the president's legal team that today could be a day for action by Bob Mueller (last working day before Labor Day), remember all the evidence the special counsel has or could that we haven't seen:

President Trump's tax returns.
Trump bank records, which are more valuable than tax returns.
Internal Trump Organization records.
More recordings from Michael Cohen.
Cellphone records (metadata showing calls placed/received and duration) related to the Trump Tower meeting.
White House and campaign emails and text messages. (Trump's legal team said in January that the White House had produced more than 20,000 pages of materials, and the campaign had provided more than 1.4 million pages.)
Contemporaneous notes of White House staffers from meetings with Trump.
A full reconstruction by former national security adviser Michael Flynn, who made a plea deal, of his conversations about Russia and subsequent lies.
Scores of hours of testimony of Trump insiders (including at least 20 White House personnel) about his private dealings, much of which is unknown to POTUS and the public.
National Enquirer files revealed by today's N.Y. Times: Trump and Cohen "devised a plan to buy up all the dirt on Mr. Trump that the National Enquirer and its parent company had collected on him, dating back to the 1980s."
As MSNBC analyst Matt Miller summarized: "Basically, everything!" Axios
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Another Bear
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From the Guardian:

Donald Trump's approval rating sinks to lowest of his presidency

New survey shows first time the national displeasure rating has exceeded 50%, and a majority of support for Mueller's Russia investigation
sycasey
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Another Bear said:

From the Guardian:

Donald Trump's approval rating sinks to lowest of his presidency

New survey shows first time the national displeasure rating has exceeded 50%, and a majority of support for Mueller's Russia investigation

Word of caution on this: it's one poll. Could be indicative of a trend, could be an outlier. Wait to see how all the polls move.
golden sloth
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I would agree with the word of caution. The remarkable thing about Trump's presidency and in spite of all the drama, his approval rating has been incredibly consistent, rarely straying more than a few points away from that 40 - 42% threshold. Other presidents have had swings of 20 points, Trump has swings of 2 points.
bearister
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I think Paulie Walnuts getting convicted represents tRump's Waterloo. If Paulie walked, so did the Crime Family.....but they got BIG HURT coming now.

Mueller just got another witch:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/31/paul-manafort-sam-patten-charged-cambridge-analytica?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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Another Bear
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Sure it's just a poll, but it points in a direction. Another poll shows Trump's disapproval rating is at 60%.

More interesting are the UK and Irish wagering odds... Again doesn't prove anything but it's an indication of the public sentiment. Given how Trump loves public adulation and TV rating, it has to hurt and it pushes the SS Dotard that much closer to the edge.

p.s. Another Manafort associate has been indicted, guy named Patten. Seems Mueller's strategy is to into cornering Trump.
Anarchistbear
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538 which agglomerates has him at 40.7%, down some but no way near his lows of 38%. Considering his week, Golden Sloth is right-those who support him, do so avidly.
sycasey
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Anarchistbear said:

538 which agglomerates has him at 40.7%, down some but no way near his lows of 38%. Considering his week, Golden Sloth is right-those who support him, do so avidly.



Right. As we've seen, he CAN fall further than this (and 40% is still pretty bad, given that we're not in a recession right now), but I wouldn't take one poll as an indication that he will.

If the economy crashes, all bets are off.
Cal88
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It's going to come down to FL, MI, OH, WI and PA once again ,it will be more about their local outlook than the overall economy.
Anarchistbear
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Trump only had a favorability rating of 38% when he was elected so it's not like he was ever popular. Next time though he may have an opponent who doesn't rival him in being hated.
dajo9
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Cal88 said:

It's going to come down to FL, MI, OH, WI and PA once again ,it will be more about their local outlook than the overall economy.


Our most Russia friendly poster is back.

Summering in a dacha on the Black Sea?
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

It's going to come down to FL, MI, OH, WI and PA once again ,it will be more about their local outlook than the overall economy.


If the overall economy goes bad, then I strongly suspect "local outlook" in these places will also be bad.
bearister
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"An American political consultant who is cooperating with federal prosecutors [Sam Patten, 47] admitted in court ... that he steered $50,000 from a Ukrainian politician to Donald Trump's inaugural committee," per the WashPost.

Why it matters: It's "the first public confirmation that illegal foreign money was used to help fund" Trump's inauguration." Axios
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joe amos yaks
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I summered in a dacha in Oni (Georgia) near the Black Sea in 2007.
It was very nice there on the banks of the Rioni River.
My neighbor was a wine grower from Portland, OR.
dajo9
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joe amos yaks said:

I summered in a dacha in Oni (Georgia) near the Black Sea in 2007.
It was very nice there on the banks of the Rioni River.
My neighbor was a wine grower from Portland, OR.


You and Cal88 should have a lot to talk about
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